Ireland’s growing and ageing population could increase demand for some aspects of GP services by more than a third, a new report by the ESRI has warned. 

Census 2022 found that the population of the Republic had hit 5 million - the first time such a large number of people had been recorded living in the 26 counties since the Great Famine. 

Immigration and longer life expectancy is forecast to see that figure increase further in the coming years. 

On Newstalk Breakfast, the report’s author, Dr Sheelah Connolly, said demographic changes mean an ever growing demand for healthcare. 

“We’re focusing on general practice - both general practitioners and general practice nurses,” she said. 

“What we find is this growing and ageing population, it’s going to result in a significant increase for both of these services.

“In GPs, it’s in the region of 23 to 30% by the year 2040. 

“While for the general practice nurses, it’s in the region of 32 to 36% over the same time period.” 

A doctor having a consultation with a patient. Picture by: Aleksandr Davydov / Alamy Stock Photo

All of this means, Dr Connolly predicted, that the State will need to deliver a “substantial increase” in the number of people working in the GP sector. 

“We’d need somewhere in the region of 940 to 1,200 additional GPs by 2040,” she said. 

“For general practice nurses, it’s somewhere in the region of 760, up to 860.” 

Dr Connolly described this as something that is likely to be “challenging” for the Government. 

However, she added that it is not a problem that is unique to GP services, with other parts of the health service also forecasting “similar or sometimes even larger increases in… demand”.  

“So, we will be looking for additional workforce, not just in general practice but in the hospital sector, in the social care sector as well,” she said.  

A doctor examines a patient in his office. Picture by: Jozef Polc / Alamy Stock Photo

Dr Connolly continued that the Government is aware that more healthcare staff will be needed in the coming years. 

“One thing that is ongoing in general practice, with the Irish College of General Practitioners, is that they have increased the number of training places,” she said. 

“There’s more people being trained - but I suppose that’s the start of the story. 

“Then when people are trained, we want to ensure that they’re recruited and working within the Irish healthcare system. 

“Then, for our existing staff, we want to ensure that they’re retained, that they’re not leaving Ireland to work elsewhere as well.”

Main image: A GP checking a patient's blood pressure. Picture by: Anthony Devlin/PA Wire/PA Images