Experts warn that the next migration wave may not be inward, but outward.

On The Anton Savage Show, journalist and climate commentator John Gibbons issued a stark warning:

Ireland could one day face a future where we become the migrants due to extreme climate change.

“Iceland has already described this as a national security crisis,” Gibbons said, referencing recent government concerns about dramatic changes to Atlantic weather systems. 

The threat lies in the slowing of the AMOC - the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, a powerful ocean current that carries warm water from the tropics into northwestern Europe.

The science behind the disruption

The AMOC is being disrupted by vast quantities of fresh water melting from the Greenland ice sheet - “hundreds of billions of tons,” according to Gibbons. 

This fresh water, pouring into the North Atlantic, is diluting the saltwater balance and threatening the system’s stability. 

“If that current were to fail,” he warned, “life as we understand it in Ireland today would no longer be possible.”

Scientists now estimate there may be a" 50–50 chance of a shutdown" this century.

A full collapse of the AMOC would have serious consequences for Ireland. 

Experts warn that our grass-based agriculture system could no longer function, sea lanes may become disrupted by ice flows, and living conditions would change dramatically. 

“We need to be very careful when wagging the finger about migrants,” Gibbons cautioned, observing current political debates on immigration into Ireland. 

“It is not beyond the bounds of possibility that many Irish people could themselves end up having to leave this country.”

What's next?

Not every scientist agrees on the timeline or severity, some predict a weakening rather than total collapse, but Gibbons emphasised that risk management should not rely on optimism.

“When you plan for risk, you don’t plan for the best-case scenario,” he said. 

“You plan for the low-probability, high-impact ones.”

He believes Ireland urgently needs a dedicated government department for emergency climate planning.

“You can’t turn a country like Ireland around in six months,” he added. 

As other countries like Iceland, Norway and Finland begin to move climate security up their political agendas, Gibbons argued that Ireland must follow suit.

Written by Annemarie Roberts