Roy Hodgson’s England squad selection for Brazil has been the subject of many discussions, focused mainly on trying to understand his rationale for choosing particular players. The omission of several (or previously key) talents has left many commentators pondering his line of thought.

One possible reason is late dips in form by players, particularly during the spring-summer months, when squad decisions are being made. To test if this may have contributed to the selection or exclusion of certain players, we looked at the Beat Your Manager popularity ratings for English players in the top 5-ranked teams (Man United, Man City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and Arsenal) during the 2013/4 season, comparing their ratings both before the end of the January transfer window and in the following months.

Beat Your Manager! Fantasy Football is an app similar to “Football Manager for live football”, where you manage your favourite Club and pick lineups, bench, formations and substitutions, all in real-time. When fans play the game, the Beat Your Manager team can get a picture of the popularity of different players, by looking at how frequently they are selected for the lineup.

England’s Goalkeeper and Forward choices are clear-cut:

At both ends of the pitch, Roy’s choices for England were very straightforward. Joe Hart is the only obvious candidate from the top 5 teams, while Daniel Sturridge and Wayne Rooney are the clear pairing of choice upfront. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain performed better with Arsenal fans over the second half of the season which may have been enough to earn him a place in Brazil, while Danny Welbeck is probably lucky to get a look in, dropping to almost half his previous ratings (45 per cent -25 per cent) with Man United fans.

Should Kieran Gibbs and Jon Flanagan be in Brazil?

The exclusion of John Terry and Ashley Cole from this tournament has puzzled many commentators, particularly as they were among Chelsea’s most popular defenders; making them the second and fifth most popular defenders with their fans, well ahead of Phil Jones and Chris Smalling. Both players showed a small drop in popularity in the second half of the season, but the suggestion that their exclusion was due to their potentially divisive influence, rather than their expected performance will continue to hold sway. 

However, two other surprise exclusions that no-one is talking about are Kieran Gibbs and Jon Flanagan. Gibbs had an excellent start to the season, obtaining an 84 per cent rating with Arsenal fans and making him the top-ranked defender in the top 5 teams. However, this plummeted to almost half that (46 per cent) since the January transfer window closed and it’s hard not to think that this dip in form may have contributed to not being picked for Brazil.
If second half performances were key to Roy’s decision-making, Jon Flanagan would have a case for lining up against Uruguay – after an unimpressive start to his season, rating a miserable 19 per cent with Liverpool fans, his stock has jumped to 69 per cent since February, making him the fourth most popular defender. 

Chris Smalling may have his second half surge in popularity to thank for his spot in Brazil, when he more than doubled his rating with Man United fans in the second half of the season compared to the first.

Has Man United’s poor season cost Michael Carrick and Tom Cleverley?

Going on fan popularity ratings, both Michael Carrick and Tom Cleverley ranked well ahead of James Milner and both may feel aggrieved that he made the cut for Brazil ahead of them. However, while Carrick can claim to respectable and consistent ratings among Man United fans over the whole season, Cleverley’s popularity has collapsed since January, where he was he was less than half as popular than in the first half of the season. The case for including Carrick in the England squad looks strong among United fans and they are probably wondering if it was United’s poor form alone this season that has cost him his place in Brazil.

Raheem Sterling’s performance against Italy vindicated Roy’s decision to include him in the squad, but he may also have a second-half charge in performance to thank for his inclusion, where he was popular with three-fifths more Liverpool fans in the second half of the season compared to the first.