The election of Gerry Hutch in the upcoming Dublin Central by-election cannot be “ruled out entirely”, one of the country’s most senior political journalists has predicted.
In the 2024 General Election, Hutch returned from Spain to stand in the constituency, but was beaten to the final seat by Labour’s Marie Sherlock.
Yesterday, the gangland boss confirmed for the first time to the Irish Daily Mail he was still interested in representing the area in Dáil Éireann.
Hutch said his second campaign in the seat would be the “same as the last time but there’ll be a few extra bits”.
Gerry Hutch
On The Claire Byrne Show, Irish Daily Mail Political Editor Craig Hughes said the Monk strongly divides opinion in Dublin’s north inner city.
“Last time around, his big issue was transfers,” he explained.
“He polled over 3,000 first preference votes; for most candidates in a General Election, they would get over the line with that number in that constituency - but he wasn’t transfer friendly.
“He said he had a plan for that this time around.”
Gerry Hutch being followed by the media. Picture by: Lazarov/RollingNews.However, there is usually a different dynamic in a by-election to a General Election, with voters far more inclined to back a protest candidate.
Back in 2009, a by-election in the seat was held following the death of local TD Tony Gregory.
At the time, Fine Gael and Labour were riding high but voters still chose to elect independent candidate Maureen O’Sullivan.
The result of the Presidential Election also suggests there is significant unhappiness in Dublin Central with the establishment parties, with nearly 15% spoiling their ballot.
“You'd also have to expect that his number of first preference votes will rise a bit,” Mr Hughes added.
“So, while he is still a long shot I don't think he can be ruled out entirely.
“Even if he got to 30% of first preference votes, he would still have a challenge by not having if he wasn't picking up on transfers elsewhere.”
Gerry Hutch in 1999 Picture by: RollingNews.ie.Dublin Central is also the seat of Sinn Féin President Mary Lou McDonald, who topped the poll in 2024 but failed to bring in a running mate.
The party has enjoyed a noticeable jump in support since the General Election and will be keen to elect a second TD in the constituency.
But Hutch made clear he hopes to pick up support from those who have previously backed Sinn Féin.
“I asked him if he if he hoped to get any votes from former supporters of former Sinn Féin councillor Jonathan Dowdall, who, of course, is now in the Witness Protection Programme, after giving evidence against him in that Special Criminal Court trial that he was acquitted of murder of,” Mr Hughes said.
“He said he didn't want to talk about Jonathan Dowdall.
“I asked him if it was safe for Mr Dowdall to come back, he said he wasn't going to do anything to him but he said karma might take care of that.”
Micheál Martin has said the Dublin Central by-election will most likely be held in May.
Main image: The Monk in the RDS Count Centre in Dublin. Picture by: Leon Farrell / RollingNews.ie.
