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General Election exit poll suggests three-way tie among main parties

Voting has come to a close around the country with the exit poll suggesting Fine Gael, Sinn Féin...
Michael Staines
Michael Staines

22.02 8 Feb 2020


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General Election exit poll sug...

General Election exit poll suggests three-way tie among main parties

Michael Staines
Michael Staines

22.02 8 Feb 2020


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Voting has come to a close around the country with the exit poll suggesting Fine Gael, Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil are in a three-way tie for a share of the vote.

The poll puts Fine Gael 22.4%, Sinn Féin on 22.3% and Fianna Fáil on 22.2%.

Meanwhile, the Green Party is in fourth place at 7.9%, with Labour on 4.6% and the Social Democrats on 3.4%.

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Solidarity-People Before Profit is on 2.8%, according to the poll, with independents and others on 14.5%.

The poll saw participants asked who they gave their first preference vote to - and it remains to be seen what effect transfers will have on the final picture.

General Election Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin and his family voting at St Anthony's Boys National School in Ballinlough, Cork, 08-08-2020. Image: Yui Mok/PA Wire/PA Images

Three-way tie

The results suggest Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will now battle it out to become the largest party in the Dáil.

However, neither party is likely to be able to form a coalition government without another confidence and supply arrangement.

Sinn Féin, which did not run as many candidates, will struggle to match the number of the seats the other two parties are likely to take home.

The party only ran 42 candidates in 38 constituencies – compared to the 84 candidates running for Fianna Fáil and the 82 for Fine Gael.

General Election Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald arriving at the polling station at St. Joseph's School for Deaf Boys in Cabra, Dublin, 08-02-2020. Image: RollingNews

Green rise

The Green Party’s 7.9% is up significantly on their last showing and the party will now hope to reach double figures in terms of seats.

Meanwhile, the Labour Party has seen its share of the electorate drop once again if the poll is to be believed – with the party’s 4.6% down two points on 2016.

The Social Democrats 3.4% would mark a half-percent rise on 2016, while Solidarity-People Before Profit will have dropped just over one point if the poll is correct.

General Election Fine Gael leader Leo Varadkar votes at Scoil Thomais in Castleknock, 08-02-2020. Image: Damien Storan/PA Wire/PA Images

Youth vote

The poll suggests Sinn Féin’s vote was strongest among younger people – with 32% of 18 to 24 year-olds and 22% of 25 to 34-year-olds.

Among 50 to 64 years-olds, the party is down at 12%.

Fine Gael was at 16% among 18 to 24 year-olds, 21% among 25 to 34-year-olds and 22% among 50 to 64-year-olds.

Meanwhile, Fianna Fáil was at 14% among 18 to 24-year-olds, 22% among 25 to 34-year-olds and 23% among 50 to 64-year-olds.

Poll

The exit poll was carried out by Ipsos MRBI on behalf of The Irish Times, RTÉ, TG4 and UCD.

The poll involved some 5,000 voters at 250 polling stations across the country.

The poll has a margin of error of 1.3%.

There are 515 candidates running in 39 constituencies around Ireland with 3.4 million citizens eligible to vote.

There are 159 of the 160 seats in the house up for grabs – as the outgoing Ceann Comhairle, Seán Ó Fearghaíl, is automatically returned to his seat.

Polling stations voter turnout Dogs at the polling station at St Joseph's School for Deaf Boys in Cabra, Dublin. image: RollingNews

Newstalk reporters will be at every count centre in the country over the coming days bringing you all the results as they come in.

We’ll be running election specials throughout the day and you can follow all the action on our live blog and on our social channels.


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Fianna Fáil Fine Gael General Election Leo Varadkar Mary Lou McDonald Micheál Martin Sinn Fein

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