There is a sense in Sinn Féin that changing leaders would ‘risk alienating voters’ and there is no easy solution to the party’s problems, a former advisor has said. 

At this point in the last Dáil term, the party was riding high in the polls; it was easily more popular than Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael and many expected Mary Lou McDonald to be the next Taoiseach. 

However, the party’s vote fell in the 2024 General Election and the party polled poorly in last week’s by-elections. 

In Galway West, Sinn Féin’s vote collapsed to just 6.7%; while in Dublin Central, Deputy McDonald’s home constituency, the party was beaten by the Social Democrats. 

On Newstalk Daily, former Sinn Féin advisor Siobhán Fenton said in conversations with her former colleagues, there is a sense the party is suffering from a “bit of strategic drift, a lack of identity”. 

There are also concerns about the “tone” of many of the party’s TDs and Senators.  

“There's maybe a sense of the party coming across as very, very negative and very angry day to day,” she said. 

“But not really setting out the kind of constructive, positive vision of hope that some of the other parties are maybe able to tap into.”

Mary Lou McDonald with Sinn Féin's candidate for Dublin Central, Cllr Janice Boylan. Picture by: Leah Farrell/RollingNews.ie.

Despite this, there seems no obvious alternative to a party led by Mary McDonald. 

While the British Tory party are enthusiastic advocates of the political sport of regicide, there is no sense among TDs that a change in leadership would transform the party's prospects. 

In fact, there is a fear that a new leader would be less popular than Deputy McDonald. 

“If another politician was to come in, particularly one associated with either more of the progressive left or else the kind of more socially conservative right-wing of the party, there would be a risk that it would almost alienate voters in the other way and you'd have the same problem in reverse,” Ms Fenton said. 

Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald and Deputy Leader Michelle O'Neill with Oireachtas colleagues. Picture by: Leah Farrell/RollingNews.ie.

Also on the podcast, Aoife Moore, author of The Long Game: Inside Sinn Féin, said there has always been a certain ideological tension in the party. 

While all the party’s TDs and activists agree on the need for Irish unity, their views on social issues can wildly differ. 

“[There] is that kind of very left-wing, very socialist, inner-city Dublin, inner-city Cork [resident]," Ms Moore described. 

“A lot more 2020 Sinn Féin [where they support] progressive legislation, interested in social justice issues - which Mary Lou consistently says that she's in favour of.” 

However, there are also party activists who come from what are sometimes called ‘country and western wing’. 

Often older and more socially conservative, they tend to live in rural Ireland and might not see themselves as especially left-wing. 

“That kind of traditional republican base, people who they think that they can win the voters back from Aontú, basically,” Ms Moore said. 

“There used to be this contingent in Irish republicanism of ‘Ireland for the Irish’ and, ‘We should be very proud of our patriotism and our nationalism’.

“And that's why we are seeing those votes going from Gerry Hutch to Sinn Féin; that's why we're seeing people transferring it from Sinn Féin to Independent Ireland.” 

Gerry Hutch campaigning in Dublin Central. Picture by: Leah Farrell/RollingNews.ie.

Immigration policy has posed a particular problem for the party in recent years, with younger left-wing voters supportive of people who have moved to Ireland in recent years. 

While the ‘country and western wing’ concern about the scale of the numbers moving into the country. 

At a recent meeting with an NGO, Ms Moore said she was told that a Sinn Féin representative admitted the party was being “hammered on immigration” in the inner cities in particular. 

“A lot of people believing misinformation about immigration and Sinn Féin were struggling,” she said. 

“They were worried about the kind of Malachy Steensons of the world, or the Gerry Hutches, eating away that kind of more right-wing vote. 

“Then when they tried to move to the right on things like immigration, they were getting pounded then by the more left of centre voters. 

“I think this is the inevitable outcome of that; you can't be all things to all people.” 

Main image: Mary Lou McDonald arriving the RDS during the Dublin Central by-election count at the RDS in Dublin. Picture by: Justin Farrelly/RollingNews.ie.