Dara Calleary has a “massive edge” in the race to be the next Taoiseach because he is not from Dublin, a public affairs consultant has predicted. 

While speculation about Micheál Martin’s leadership of Fianna Fáil has receded since the end of the fuel process, there is still a widespread belief that he is unlikely to be party president at the next election. 

On The Claire Byrne Show, Gerard Howlin praised the Cork TD for his “incredible stamina”. 

“He's been extraordinarily successful in managing a weak party, a weak political hand himself, in terms of keeping himself as leader since 2011 and getting himself back into the Taoiseach's office twice,” he said. 

“Actually, he thrives in its weakness; his strength is its weakness because it is weak in terms of personnel, in terms of numbers, in terms of energy. 

“He, as that very dominant force, is proportionately a bigger character, a bigger figure.”

Taoiseach Micheál Martin with US President Donald Trump. Picture by: Tasos Katopodis / Government of Ireland/Via RollingNews.ie.

Although most TDs keep their criticisms of their leader private, Mr Howlin said in politics, people are “constantly on manoeuvres”. 

It means that even if there is officially no contest, TDs are thinking about it and quietly plotting away. 

“Sometimes it might be the figures themselves, anyone who ever has a cup of coffee with anyone is deemed to be on manoeuvres,” he said. 

“And then, of course, their acolytes or wannabe acolytes are on manoeuvres with or without permission.”

Runners and riders

One TD who has blotted their copy book in recent months is deputy leader Jack Chambers. 

Once considered a strong candidate for the top job, the Minister for Public Expenditure’s reputation took a battering after he helped recruit Jim Gavin as the party’s presidential candidate. 

Despite this, Mr Howlin said the idea of Taoiseach Jack Chambers cannot be ruled out. 

“Six months is an eternity in politics,” he said. 

“He has handled himself well since the debacle of the presidential election.

“He hasn't let it get him down, he has continued on, he's doing his work.

“He's up and at it and as you say, if he's deemed to have a good budget by next year, it could be further back in the rearview mirror.”

Micheál Martin and Jack Chambers. Picture by: Leah Farrell/RollingNews.ie.

Another possible candidate is Darragh O’Brien, who like Minister Chambers is a Dubliner and a long serving minister.

“Darragh O'Brien has had three major jobs in Cabinet, which is at least one more than any of his colleagues, because he had housing in the last Dáil,” Mr Howlin said. 

“He has transport as one department and then separately, he has climate, energy and environment in this. 

“Is he a potential leader? Perhaps some people think so - I'm not convinced.

Darragh O'Brien. Picture by: PA Wire/PA Images.

Another big name is Justice Minister Jim O’Callaghan. Although he has only been a Minister since 2025, Fianna Fáil TDs have been impressed with the way the Senior Counsel has handled himself in the position. 

Notably, he has taken a much harder line on asylum issues than his predecessor, Helen McEntee. 

“He's seen to have energy, aplomb, there's a lot of spotlight on him,” Mr Howlin said. 

“Whether he has the killer instinct to do this remains to be seen.

“You have to step over somebody's dead body to get into the Taoiseach's office, let's not, you know, pretend otherwise."

Justice Minister Jim O'Callaghan arriving at Government Buildings. Picture by: Alamy.com.

However, all three have one noticeable disadvantage - the trio are city boys, who have spent their entire political lives in Dublin. 

Being a Dubliner did not stop the likes of Seán Lemass, Charles Haughey or Bertie Ahern becoming Taoiseach, but the party has changed significantly over the years. 

Presently, Fianna Fáil members in Dublin are few and far between and most live in rural Ireland. 

Taoiseach Micheál Martin and Minister for Social Protection Dara Calleary. Picture by: Alamy.com.

“The Fianna Fáil Electoral College gives 45% of the vote to the party members, provided you've been a paid up member for one year,” Mr Howlin explained. 

“It gives less than that, just 40% to the TDs, and it gives 15% to senators, MEPs, councillors and members of the national executive. 

“So, while sweeping the parliamentary party would give you a good start if you could sweep it, the membership will be very, very important. 

“The membership of Fianna Fáil is overwhelmingly based in rural constituencies.”

It all means that Mr Howlin believes Minister for Social Protection Dara Calleary a “massive edge” because he is from Mayo.

Main image: Taoiseach Micheál Martin and Minister for Social Protection Dara Calleary. Picture by: Alamy.com.