How much longer does Micheál Martin have left as Taoiseach? 

The Presidential Election was an unmitigated disaster for Fianna Fáil, with party nominee Jim Gavin withdrawing from the race after admitting he owed a former tenant €3,300. 

In the end, the former Dublin GAA manager polled a derisory 7% - the worst performance by a Fianna Fáil candidate in the history of Presidential politics. 

On Newstalk Daily, Newstalk Breakfast presenter Shane Coleman said Mr Gavin’s implosion reflects poorly on An Taoiseach. 

 “You can kind of see the logic of why he went for Jim Gavin at the time,” he explained. 

“I think he felt - and probably rightly - that you need to go for something a little outside the box in terms of a candidate. 

“You had this high profile [individual]; he had this long record of service, he’d done very well with the Citizens’ Assembly on the Dublin Mayor. 

“He went for him and it just went horribly, horribly wrong.” 

Whatever his merits on paper, Mr Gavin quickly proved himself a poor candidate. 

Even before he withdrew from the race, his campaign was marked by a number of small gaffes and an inability to connect with the electorate. 

All polls put him in third place. 

Jim Gavin speaks to the media. Picture by: Eamonn Farrell/© RollingNews.ie

“Leaving aside the issue of the rent, Gavin struggled badly in debates,” Shane continued. 

“Legitimate questions are being asked, was he tested enough?” 

In the weeks since Mr Gavin’s decision to quit the race, anger among the Fianna Fáil Parliamentary Party and grassroots has not dimmed. 

Critics of Mr Martin’s leadership have been emboldened and there are mutterings about a leadership challenge. 

“What we saw over the weekend was a lot of people who would be critics of Micheál Martin anyway and his leadership style,” Shane said. 

“Look, if you’re a party leader, there’ll always be the disgruntled people who didn’t get favourment, who didn’t get promotion. 

“His leadership style, there’s a feeling that he surrounds himself with his advisors, that he doesn’t listen to the Parliamentary Party. 

“The way he presented Jim Gavin, maybe as an almost a fait accompli, probably emphasised that to people in the party.”

Jim Gavin on an election poster. Picture by: Brendan Donnelly / Alamy.

Given the way he imposed Mr Gavin on the Parliamentary Party, Shane said talk of a leadership challenge was inevitable given the “humiliation and embarrassment” over the past few weeks. 

While many TDs feel they owe their seats to him, others feel strongly he has been their leader for too long. 

“I think what we can say for certain is that he will not lead Fianna Fáil into the next election,” Shane said. 

“I think there might have been a slight doubt about that; it was always unlikely but there might have been a slight doubt about that a month or two ago. 

“Certainly, imagine if Jim Gavin had won the election, I think it would be different.

“But I think we can say for certain now, he will not do that.” 

Micheál Martin and Michael D Higgins. Picture by: Newstalk.

In the Programme for Government, it was agreed that Tánaiste Simon Harris and Taoiseach Micheál Martin will swap jobs in November 2027. 

Can Mr Martin hold on until then? 

“It’s hard to know at this stage,” Shane said. 

“A lot depends on how the EU Presidency goes, a lot depends on does the Government start making progress on housing?” 

Shane concluded that while the wily Mr Martin has “been written off so many times” before in his career, his demise is now a question of “when” not “if”.

Main image: Micheál Martin with Jim Gavin. Picture by: Eamonn Farrell/ RollingNews.ie.