It would take a “minor miracle” for Heather Humphreys to turn around her faltering campaign and beat Catherine Connolly this week, Newstalk Political Correspondent Seán Defoe has said.
Friday is polling day and the most recent research into public opinion, published by the Irish Times last week, had Deputy Connolly ahead with a commanding lead in the race to be Ireland's next President.
38% of respondents told pollsters they would give the Galway West TD their first preference vote, while 20% said the same about Ms Humphreys.
5% said they would vote for Fianna Fáil’s Jim Gavin, who has withdrawn from the race.
12% said they did not plan on voting, 6% plan to spoil their ballot and 18% said they were unsure what they will do.
If this result were replicated on Friday, Deputy Connolly would be declared Uachtarán na hÉireann-Elect on the first count, having won more than half the votes cast.
On Newstalk Breakfast, Seán said the left wing independent is now the firm favourite to be Ireland’s 10th President.
“The question in the Fine Gael camp has been, how do they chip away at that?” he said.
“Over the weekend, they really came out with the strongest comments yet, really attacking Catherine Connolly over her record as a barrister representing the banks.”
Catherine Connolly outside Leinster House. Picture by: Leah Farrell/RollingNews.ie.It all means, Seán added, that the “gloves are very firmly off” as the race enters its final days.
But will it work?
“I think it would require a minor miracle for Heather Humphreys to overcome [Ms Connolly’s poll lead],” he said.
“A lot of people are talking about the Seán Gallagher deficit from 2011, I think that was a different thing.
“One, there was such a febrile atmosphere out there; it was a very angry time in Ireland.
“Any sort of association with Fianna Fáil was met with pure hatred.
“Whereas this election is more pure apathy; a lot of people don’t know who they’re going to vote for - or whether they’re going to vote at all.”
Government support
While Ms Humphreys might be the Fine Gael candidate, the implosion of Jim Gavin means she has increasingly picked up support from Fianna Fáil politicians.
An Taoiseach Micheál Martin has endorsed her, as has Bertie Ahern and a number of Cabinet Ministers from the Brian Cowen-era of politics.
“We’ve definitely seen a circling of the wagons from ‘Official Ireland’,” Seán continued.
“The Taoiseach rowing in behind Heather Humphreys; we’ve seen the likes of Mary Harney, Mary Coughlan, Frances FitzGerald - former Tánaistí - coming out in the last few days to back Heather Humphreys and try to rerun what happened in 2011 with this ‘lend us your vote’ campaign.
“But again - very atmosphere now and I’m not sure people are all that bothered about going out and lending Fine Gael their vote in the same way when they used those same tactics.”
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With a few days still left of the campaign, Seán said you can “never know” what will happen but noted this election has already had one big surprise.
“I think the big swing in this election has probably already happened in Jim Gavin,” he said.
“But look, they will be out in force, they will be trying to turn that tide.
“I do think tomorrow night, if there is going to be a momentum changer, it usually happens in something like a big TV debate.
“Heather Humphreys’ camp knows that is her last big swing when a lot of people who haven’t been paying attention to every in and out of the campaign will tune in.”
Counting will begin on Saturday.
Main image: Fine Gael's candidate Heather Humphreys and independent candidate Catherine Connolly. Picture by: Conor O'Mearain / Alamy.
