Catherine Connolly is still in the driving seat when it comes to the Irish presidential election.

The latest Business Post/Red C poll puts support for Ms Connolly at 36%, while Fine Gael candidate Heather Humphreys is at 25%.

A substantial 27% of those polled remain undecided, while Jim Gavin was placed at 12% despite having pulled out of the race.

Newstalk’s Political Correspondent Seán Defoe explained that this was because of when the poll was conducted.

“The polling was done half before he dropped out and half after he dropped out,” he told Newstalk Breakfast.

“So, a little skewed there, maybe not the most accurate picture, but there is still a cohort out there who will probably vote for Jim Gavin.

“Whether as a spoiled vote or as a number one before they give their number two to a Heather Humphreys or a Catherine Connolly instead.”

Candidates Heather Humphreys (left) and Catherine Connolly (right) with RTE presenter David McCullagh ahead of a debate. Picture date: Sunday October 12, 2025. PA Images

Seán said that while the number of people who remain undecided is “significant”, it is not out of line with general election trends.

“When you take out Jim Gavin and the undecideds – and there was a significant number of undecideds, the 27% feeds into figures that we know from the Electoral Commission in the past,” he said.

“They say that most people don’t actually make up their mind until the final week of the campaign.

“You get a picture where it’s Catherine Connolly quite far ahead in terms of over 55% and then Heather Humphreys in around 44%.

“So, that’s where we stand heading into the last full week of campaigning.”

According to Seán, while this is not an insurmountable lead, there isn’t “any real doubt” that Ms Connolly is “100% in the driving seat here”.

Sticking points

Seán said the real issue for Ms Humphreys campaign team is that despite their candidate giving her “best performance by quite a distance” in yesterday’s debate, Ms Connolly seems able to weather any storm.

“[Heather Humphreys] landed quite a few punches when it came to Catherine Connolly,” he said.

“[She] had Catherine Connolly on the back foot for, what, at least 20 minutes, if not up to half of that debate.

"And yet still didn’t come out as the clear head and shoulders winner."

According to Seán, despite Ms Connolly being challenged on a range of views, “lots of issues are coming at her, but they’re not really sticking”.

Main image: Catherine Connolly (L), Heather Humphreys (R).