Sinn Féin losing the Dublin Central by-election could put Mary Lou McDonald’s leadership under pressure, political experts have predicted. 

The party president has comfortably topped the constituency in each of the last three General Elections. 

However, polling in the seat suggests the party is under pressure, with just days to go before the vote. 

The TG4/Irish Times Ipsos B&A found Sinn Féin Councillor Janice Boylan ahead in the inner city constituency with 21% support. 

The Social Democrats' candidate, Daniel Ennis, has the support of 18% of voters, while Gerry Hutch is backed by 14% of the constituency. 

Fine Gael Councillor Ray McAdam is on 14% and Janet Horner of the Green Party is on 8%. 

On Newstalk Daily, political scientist Theresa Reidy described it as Cllr Boylan’s “election to lose at this stage”. 

However, her lead is not large enough to guarantee a win and no one can say for sure which candidate will turn up at Leinster House as the new Teachta Dála for Dublin Central. 

A loss in the seat would be hugely embarrassing for Deputy McDonald, who has been a TD in the area for 15 years. 

“There really will be a lot of pressure if this doesn't work out in her constituency,” Ms Reidy predicted. 

“Dublin really matters; this is Mary Lou's heartland and party leaders, if they're going to be successful, if they're going to take their parties into Government, they have to bring in running mates.” 

Galway West

Polling Galway West suggests Fine Gael Senator Seán Kyne is the favourite, with 17% support. 

However, he has only marginally more support than Independent Ireland’s Noel Thomas, who is forecast to win 16% of locals’ first preference votes. 

Galway City Councillor Helen Ogbu has the support of 12% of voters, while Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich of the Social Democrats has 9% support, with Fianna Fáil's Cillian Keane on 8% support. 

Ms Reidy noted that even though by-elections are usually difficult for Government candidates, Senator Kyne has an advantage in that he has previously been a TD for the area. 

“He's well known and he's probably the best known of all the candidates on the ballot paper,” she explained. 

“So, you can have these countervailing forces working where maybe your party isn't especially advantageous in a place, but the fact that you've been a TD and you have previous incumbency and you're well known, that can certainly be advantageous. 

“Candidate characteristics matter an awful lot at Irish elections for very practical reasons.” 

Tánaiste Simon Harris with Senator Seán Kyne and other colleagues. Picture by: XPOSURE / Mike Shaughnessy. 

Ms Reidy continued that first time candidates often struggle in by-elections, where establishment parties often pour money and activists into a seat. 

“They don't already have a connection with voters, but they also don't have canvassing teams, they don't have posters, they don't have the kind of structure behind them that more experienced candidates do,” she added. 

“So, all of these things play in together, but party matters, but candidate experience is also very important and can, in fact, in certain cases, be more important.”

Main image: Mary Lou McDonald and Janice Boylan. Picture by: RollingNews.ie.