The Premier League relegation battle is finely poised with nine points separating 10th place Fulham from Aston Villa in 18th.
But realistically five teams are likely to be involved in a fight to the death in the final stretch. Harry Redknapp’s QPR, Reading, Villa, Southampton and Wigan make up the bottom five and the three likely candidates for relegation will be one of those teams - which makes today’s clash between Reading and Aston Villa at the Madjeski Stadium all the more gargantuan.
But of all the teams mired in the bottom half, Aston Villa has been the only ever-present in the Premier League, since its inception in 1992.
Despite counting on a billionaire owner in Randy Lerner, Villa failed to spend significantly in January to bolster a squad replete with youngsters. And that lack of experience could be their undoing in the final months of the season.
And what if they ultimately go down?
The Birmingham club has counted on a steady stream of cash from TV revenue for the past 20 years. Coupled with Lerner’s contribution during Martin O’Neill’s tenure (2006 to 2010), it helped fund a net transfer spend of almost €100 million – outspending the likes of Manchester United, Arsenal and Liverpool. However it can be argued that most of the transfer fees went towards mediocre players who were incapable of leading a push for Champions League football which would have made that outlay more sustainable.
Consequently Aston Villa has the seventh highest wage bill in the Premier League at almost €90 million despite the fact that some high earners have been offloaded in the past three years as Lerner has scaled back his investment.
A wage bill of that magnitude will be crippling for the club if relegation occurs even taking into account parachute payments of almost €50 million over four years. In 2011, Villa’s wage bill accounted for over 90 per cent of turnover, far higher than UEFA’s recommended limit of 70 per cent.
Big wages
And selling some of the current high earners may not be so simple because the quality of some of Villa’s players fails to correlate with their incomes. Stephen Ireland, Charles N’Zogbia and Darren Bent would be a case in point. All three are on big wages, and with the exception of the Frenchman, have been frozen out of the first team so the club will probably have to take a hit in terms of transfer fees.
Bent was signed for almost €30 million in January 2011 but the 29-year-old is likely to fetch just over €10 million in the current transfer market.
Villa’s debts approximately sit at a hefty €130 million, although they are fortunate that all but €15 million or so is owed to Randy Lerner in the form of loans which are unlikely to be called back.
They are also fortunate that they can rely on an excellent youth academy which can provide the bulk of the playing staff if big names are sold.
But it is Lerner’s future that will decide Villa’s long-term fate. His failure to provide significant backing to Paul Lambert in the last transfer window raises many questions about what will happen to the club if it ends up in the Championship.
