The writing has been on the wall since the local and European Elections of May 2014 when Fine Gael was decimated, they experienced massive losses while Fianna Fail had a very good election. The Labour Party also got wiped out.
We are talking about a reflection of the polls, but from August to September there was a surge of support for Fine Gael, they went as low as 24% and as high as 32%.
The big mistakes
- It was a huge mistake for Fine Gael not to go to for an election on the 30th of November. Bearing all things in mind as they were heading towards Christmas, they will be disappointed not to have enjoyed a further surge - instead, they have gone backwards.
- They opened up the 'fiscal space' issue with at least €2bn of money dreamed up through creative accountancy. This undermined their competency.
- The party has this 'fiscal responsibility' and 'prudence' platform - but then they promised the biggest election giveaway in the history of the State, taking €4bn out of the Government's books by abolishing the Universal Social Charge. All while we still have a significant national debt.
- The third failing was Enda Kenny's gaffe, calling people who didn't feel the recovery and who didn't share Fine Gael's notion of where the country is moving from and to 'whingers.'
To call Michael Martin, or Gerry Adams a whinger is one thing - to call your own voters, in your back garden All Ireland whingers? Not a great idea.
That was compounded by a failure to fix the mistake immediately. Maybe no one had the moxie to tell the Taoiseach that he had committed one of the worst gaffes of the campaign. When he did 'fix it' and do a 'mea culpa' and apologise, it was too late. The damage had been done.
Backlash
This was demonstrated in the fact that 1,500 angry people went to the People's Debate to vent in Castlebar that Monday night, which was the last Monday night of the campaign.
The party also failed to control the narrative which was "stability" - that hasn't been mentioned during the last week. No one believes that story anymore.
I don't think the Coalition could ever have been reelected - that reality has now become apparent. They lost control of the agenda as "fairness" in the recovery became the issue that connected with voters.
