Vladimir Putin is “very confident” of getting a good deal from Donald Trump as the negotiations on the future of Ukraine inch towards a conclusion, an expert in international politics has said. 

Nearly four years since the Kremlin launched an invasion of its neighbour and over a million lives later, it seems like peace could be in sight. 

Talks between the two sides remain ongoing in Florida, where President Trump has said they are “close to 95%” complete. 

On Late Breakfast, Professor David Dunn of Birmingham University said the US President is not interested in the details, he merely wants to get the war over with. 

“What Trump is interested in is bringing the fighting to an end,” he explained. 

“He doesn't necessarily care, it seems, about bringing the fight to an end in a way that is either just or lasting or is good for European security - or indeed the future of Ukraine.

“And therefore, there is, whenever Zelensky meets Trump, great jeopardy for the Ukrainian leader in that Trump will try to pressure him.

“Because as far as Trump's concerned, it's easier to pressure Ukraine than it is to pressure Russia.” 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Donald Trump. Picture by: Ukrainian Presidential Press Office/Alamy Live News.

Professor Dunn added that the Americans are “being played, frankly” by Putin and his regime.

“The Russians have been very skilful in preventing the Europeans from seizing their assets and giving those to Ukraine by saying to the Americans, ‘If you stop the Europeans doing this, you can have some of that money for joint projects’,” he added. 

“And that's what motivates this administration and, therefore, the Americans have pressured the Europeans not to do that.”

Ukrainian soldiers carry the coffin of Denys Galushko, a Ukrainian serviceman killed while fighting against Russian troops in Bakhmut. Picture by: Dimitar DILKOFF / AFP.

One of the thorniest of issues is the question of security guarantees for NATO. 

While Ukrainians would dearly love to join NATO, the Russians would loathe for them to do so in equal measure. 

A compromise has been suggested where European nations provide Ukraine with a time limited guarantee of support for their sovereignty. 

Depending on the exact detail of the agreement, it could even mean Irish troops stationed in the country. 

Ukrainian soldiers. Picture by: Alamy.com

“There have been suggestions that the security guarantee will be time-limited to 15 years,” Professor Dunn said. 

“Well, we actually, if you look at the history of Russia and what is now Ukraine, over hundreds of years, the Russians have invaded that territory, have sought that territory, have been a problem for their neighbours across all of Europe. 

“And therefore, these security guarantees absolutely matter; the Americans, it seems, are not willing to be very forthcoming on that. 

“I mean, it's clear that NATO membership is off the table in the short term.” 

A NATO flag in Rukla, Lithuania. Picture by: dpa picture alliance / Alamy.

Whatever is ultimately agreed, Professor Dunn expects the Russians will be delighted with the final outcome. 

While Putin once hoped to conquer the entire country in a few days, Moscow will be quite happy with a large chunk of Ukrainian soil. 

“Just now they're winning diplomatically and they are winning on the battlefield, they're making incremental gains,” Professor Dunn said. 

“And what Putin is calculating, I think, is that if he just plays ball, it will be the Americans who pressure the Ukrainians to make up the ground between them rather than him having to give any concessions at all - and he's very confident.

“If you look at his speech in front of the nation, which he did in the last couple of weeks, he is talking about, again, the maximalist goals and the maximalist gains. 

“And he calculates that he can get more than he even dreamed of a year ago.”

Main image: President Donald Trump and Russia's President Vladimir Putin in Alaska this summer. Picture by: AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson.