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UK election: Pollsters predict Tory majority but 'cannot rule out' hung parliament

A final major poll ahead of tomorrow's British general election predicts a Conservative majority ...
Stephen McNeice
Stephen McNeice

08.39 11 Dec 2019


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UK election: Pollsters predict...

UK election: Pollsters predict Tory majority but 'cannot rule out' hung parliament

Stephen McNeice
Stephen McNeice

08.39 11 Dec 2019


Share this article


A final major poll ahead of tomorrow's British general election predicts a Conservative majority - but a considerably smaller majority compared to previous polls.

Pollsters say they also cannot rule out another hung parliament, similar to what happened in the last election two years ago.

YouGov's final general election MRP model - which doesn't include Northern Ireland - is based on a major poll involving more than 105,000 interviews between December 4th and December 10th.

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It predicts the Conservatives on 43% of the vote, Labour on 34%, the Liberal Democrats on 12% and the Brexit Party on 3%.

That would give the Tories 339 seats, compared to 231 for Labour, 41 for the SNP and 15 for the Lib Dems.

If those numbers are reflected in the results of the election itself, it would mean an overall 28 seat majority for Boris Johnson's government.

It represents a drop compared to the model two weeks ago, which predicted 359 seats for the Tories.

Meanwhile, taking the margin of error into account for the latest poll suggests the final number of Conservative seats could be between 311 and 367 - results which would range from a hung parliament to a healthy Tory majority.

The YouGov model previously successfully predicted a hung parliament in 2017.

YouGov's Anthony Wells said: "Over the last fortnight we've seen the Conservative lead and the number of seats they are projected to win gradually fall.

"The Conservatives are also doing less well in Scotland than in our November MRP model and are now predicted to lose five seats, although many of these are extremely tight and could go either way."

The results come as party leaders prepare for their final day of campaigning before British voters head to the polls tomorrow.

Boris Johnson has focused on his 'getting Brexit done' message throughout the campaign, while Jeremy Corbyn has made the NHS the core message for Labour.

Polls open at 7am tomorrow and close at 10pm, with results expected overnight on Thursday /Friday.

Main image: Prime Minister Boris Johnson carries a crate during a visit to Greenside Farm Business Park in Leeds, ahead of Thursday's General Election. Picture by: Stefan Rousseau/PA Wire/PA Images

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