There is no doubt that the 2011 General Election brought about a seismic change in Irish politics which was dramatically reflected in the composition of the 31st Dail. An unprecedented 84 of the 166 TD’s had not been members of the previous Dail.
Fianna Fail, who had been the largest party in the State since 1932, lost 56 of the 76 seats that they had won in 2007 while Fine Gael with 76 seats, Labour 37 seats and Sinn Fein 14 seats had their best results since the foundation of the State. This led to a Fine Gael and Labour coalition that had a historic 53 seat majority in the Dail.
All of this came about as the result of the worst economic crash ever suffered by the Irish people since Independence with the outgoing Government of Fianna Fail and the Green Party paying the electoral price with the latter party losing all of its six seats.
Just six weeks after the election and one month following the formation of the new Government the 2011 Census of Population was held.
Why is it important now?
This produced a very clear picture of the legacy left by the outgoing Government and the scale of the challenges facing the new incumbents. As the country faces into another General Election how those challenges have been dealt with will be the basis for the debates that will inform the electorate and ultimately determine for whom they will cast their vote.
The years of austerity following the collapse of the economy had by 2011 caused major pain to the people in terms of unemployment, emigration, finances, health and mortgage distress. This analysis examines some of the key factors that impact on the everyday lives of our citizens and pinpoints the geographical areas that have suffered the most and asks how much has been achieved in addressing these issues.
This is all done for each of the forty constituencies that will elect 158 TD’s to the 32nd Dail and maps for each constituency will paint a comprehensive picture of where Ireland stood as the votes were cast in February 2011.
Population and Age
The Census found that 4,588,252 persons lived in the Republic which was an increase of 348,404 or 8.2% on the 2006 figure and is now at its highest since 1851. This figure would have been much higher was it not for some 270,000 people emigrating from the country 2006-2011. The increase comes from a natural increase of 225,000 (number of births v deaths) and 123,000 increase in non-Irish nationals with an additional 60,000 Polish nationals accounting for the largest single block of that increase.
The new constituency of Laois had the largest % increase at 19.9% which equated to an additional 14,600 people. Next was Dublin Fingal which increased by 14.8% but they had the largest numerical increase of some 18,100. At the other end of the scale was the new constituency of Dublin Bay North whose population increased by a mere 2.9% which was just 0.1% lower than Limerick City.
The population aged 65 and over in 2011 stood at 535,393 which was an increase of 67,467 (14.4%) on 2006 and is the highest number of people in this age group since the foundation of the State and represents 11.7% of the population. The constituencies with the highest % of people in this age group are Dublin Bay North and Dun Laoghaire at 15.6% while Dublin West (5.5%) and Dublin Mid-West (6.5%) have the lowest percentages.
The constituencies with the highest % of under 14’s are Kildare South (25.4%) and Meath West (25.2%) while those with the lowest are Dublin Bay South (11.2%) and Dublin Central (11.6%).
Education
In 2011, 739,992 of the population whose full-time education had ceased had a minimum of a third level degree which represented 24.6%. This compared to 2006 when 18.5% of the population fell into this category.
However, there is a great diversity in the geographical spread of this knowledge. Dublin Bay South (53.7%) and Dublin Rathdown (45.9%) led the way but the lowest standards were Wexford (16.5%) and Offaly (16.6%). This, of course, has a knock-on effect when it comes to employment levels and the ability to attract investment and jobs.
Employment
In 2011, 424,843 persons in the workforce were unemployed and this represented 19% of that workforce. This compared to 2006 when the figure was 8.5%. The constituencies of Donegal (26.2%) and Wexford (24%) had the highest levels of unemployment while Dublin Rathdown (10.2%) and Dublin Bay South (11.7%) were least impacted by the recession.
At September 2015, the number unemployed was 205,300 or 9.4% of the workforce.
The number employed in the 2nd quarter of 2015 was 1,983,000 which is an increase of 176,000 or 9.7% on 2011. However, there are arguments as to what percentage are real jobs or are JobBridge, internships etc. The percentage unemployed has also been impacted by emigration.
Broadband
In 2011, 63.8% of all households had broadband which was a significant increase on the 20% figure in 2006.
The constituencies with the highest levels of broadband were Dublin Rathdown (80.4%) and Dublin West (80.2%) while at the other end of the scale were Limerick County (52%) and Roscommon-Galway (52.4%).
Disability
In 2011, 595,335 persons were categorised as disabled representing 13% of the population. There is no direct comparison with 2006 as the figures were collected using a different methodology but it is estimated that the numbers increased by some 50%.
The constituencies of Dublin South-Central (17.1%) and Dublin North-West (15.7%) had the highest levels of disability while Dublin West (9.8%) and Meath East (10.2%) had the lowest incidence. There were 327 million hours of unpaid care provided by carers in 2011. Were those hours to be paid at even the minimum wage it would have cost the State some €2.9 billion.
Lone Parents
Given the controversy over the Lone Parent Allowances it is interesting to note how many lone parent households are in the State.
In 2011, there were 197,937 one parent households which represented 12% of all households. This figure is a slight increase on the 2006 figure when it was 11.6% although it does represent an actual increase of some 27,000 households.
Dublin North-West (16.9%) and Dublin Mid-West (15.7%) had the highest incidence while the lowest were Dublin Bay South (6.5%) and Dublin Rathdown (9.4%).
Housing
It seems somewhat bizarre that there is now a chronic housing shortage given the increase in the housing stock between 2001 and 2011. In that period, 437,705 houses were built that are currently occupied. This represented an increase in the occupied housing stock of an astonishing 26.5% and there were an additional 300,000 vacant houses and apartments. Yet, in this period, the population increased by just 17.1%.
The largest increases occurred in the constituencies of Laois (38.8%) and Dublin Fingal (36.5%) while the smallest increases were in Dublin Bay South (10.7%) and Dun Laoghaire (12.1%). The building boom, of course, meant significant increases in mortgage distress as householders could no longer meet their repayments and the majority of these are in the constituencies where the greatest numbers were built.
Another contributor to the housing crisis is the number of houses that are occupied by only one person. There are 392,000 of these which represent 23.8% of the occupied housing stock. Dublin Bay South (37.6%) and Dublin Central (34.8%) have the highest proportion but that is influenced by the significant number of apartments in both constituencies while a bigger concern would be those ranked 4th to 8th. These are rural constituencies Sligo-Leitrim, Mayo, Kerry, Roscommon-Galway and Cork South-West who all have over 26% households with people living alone.
Many of these are elderly, have a disability and given the rural crime wave often live in fear with the closure of Garda stations, post offices and rural pubs contributing to that. No less than 27.7% of people aged 65+ live alone which effectively means that 38% of all one person households come from this age group.
Water
One of the major issues at the election will be water charges but this is not as black and white as many think. 24.4% of all households in the country have always paid for their water through group schemes or private sources. Therefore, they will have little sympathy for those campaigning to have the charges removed.
While as you would expect the urban constituencies have the highest percentage of households on public mains with Dublin Bay North (94.1%) and Dun Laoghaire (92.9%) at the top.
However, there are 14 constituencies where at least a third of the households already pay for water with Galway East (58.3%) and Cavan-Monaghan (54.6%) the most prominent.
