Mr Lucas told Newstalk the situation needed to evolve to improve Republican prospects ahead of the Midterm election.
Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is once again under threat putting Iran and US relations at a standstill.
President Trump himself has cast doubt on whether the peace agreement is still alive.
At the same time,Washington is wrestling with a bitter political battle over funding the conflict.
Questions are also mounting over President Trump's latest move to dismiss the remaining members of the bipartisan Election Assistance Commission, raising fresh concerns about the health of American institutions ahead of this year's midterm elections in November.
Professor Scott Lucas from UCD's Clinton Institute told The Pat Kenny Show the Memorandum of Understanding between Ireland and The United States was “in limbo”.
“We're not at a point where we're going to have a return to the war that had taken place up until April the 7th, primarily because the Trump administration doesn't have good options militarily”, he told Newstalk.
“We're not going to get movement towards a deal because of the fundamental issue of the Strait of Hormuz. That's that vital waterway through which 20 to 25 percent of the world's maritime oil and gas passes.
“[Trumps’ clan] want to break Iranian control of the Strait because if they don't, they've got no alternative but to move towards a deal on Iranian terms. That's why we get these clashes that take place, including the most recent one this week.”
Mr Lucas told Newstalk the situation needed to evolve to improve Republican prospects ahead of the Midterm election.
“I mean, unless the Americans can break the Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz and get these several hundred tankers out, they really only have two options.
“One is that they go back to war against Iran with the airstrikes. You would have to put in ground troops to get regime surrender.
“That will have effects on the economy, serious effects on the economy. So that's why I think in a way that the Americans will go back and deal. At the same time, I don't see a significant improvement in the economy.
“I don't see the Strait being reopened. I think they were going to have this burden of higher inflation. That's going to be an anchor on them if they can't manipulate the elections to try to get their majorities in Congress.”
Main Image: US President Donald Trump.
