The Environmental Protection Agency said Ireland is projected to only cut emissions by 29% by 2030, compared to the goal of 51%.

This represents a 4% reduction each year, which the EPA says “is insufficient to achieve the ambition” of the Climate Action Plan.  

Ireland will not reach its first two carbon budgets “by a significant margin”, according to the EPA.

The EPA’s Greenhouse Gas Emission projection is based on assumptions such as economic growth, fuel prices and Government policy.

Almost all sectors are on a trajectory to exceed their national sectoral emissions ceilings for 2025 and 2030, including agriculture, electricity transport and industry. 

Residential buildings are the only sector not expected to seriously underperform in cutting greenhouse gas emissions.  

Primary and Secondary Schools in Dublin at a Climate Change Protest, 15-03-2019. Image: Sam Boal/RollingNews

EPA Director Eimear Cotter told Newstalk the policy and measures in the Climate Action Plan can make a difference.

“[But] we do have an issue where we see growth in the economy is outstripping those measures,” she said. “And it’s going to take time for those measures to actually deliver.” 

“Overall, the message is fairly stark that we are going to fall short of our climate targets even with the additional measures.” 

She said the current projections shows the “scale of the challenges” Ireland has ahead of itself.  

EPA Senior Manager Stephen Treacy said these projections underline the urgency of moving to an economy and society powered by renewable energy sources 

“The longer we wait, the longer it will be before we realise the benefits as the time horizon for achievement of national and EU commitments is getting ever shorter,” he said.