Ireland gets growth forecast upgrade

Davy Stockbrokers is as concerned about a Brexit as everyone else, however...

IBEC, Brexit, Ireland, benefits, upside, currency, trade, EU, referendum, Danny McCoy

The British Union Jack flies alongside the Irish Tricolour in front of Government Buildings. Image:

Davy Stockbrokers has improved its forecast for Irish growth to reflect the strong 2015 expansion in GDP.

Ireland's largest stockbroker now predicts growth of 6% in 2016 and 4% in 2017, an improvement on the previous forecast of 4% this year and 2.7% next.

Conall Mac Coille, chief economist at Davy, told the Independent:

"Our upgrades reflect the exceptional 7.8% GDP growth in 2015.

"This momentum means that even if GDP flat-lined through 2016, the economy would still expand by 3.3% in the calendar year.

"However, retail sales data, PMI surveys and unemployment benefit claimants have all continued to point to rapid growth in the first quarter of 2016."

Positivity aside, Davy added its voice to the recent chorus of economic warnings in the face of Brexit:

"Should the UK vote in favour of Brexit on June 23rd, the two-year exit period under Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty will ensure no immediate change to trade arrangements.

"However, uncertainty could cause companies to put off investment plans. Exporters could also be faced with a sharp sterling depreciation, close to parity with the euro.