Dublin Central

Quick facts:

  • 3-seater (-1) 
  • Sitting TDs: Paschal Donohue (FG), Joe Costello (LAB), Mary Lou McDonald (SF), Maureen O'Sullivan (IND)
  • Ministerial representation: Paschal Donohoe, Fine Gael
  • Population: 89,030
  • 2011 poll topper: Paschal Donohoe, Fine Gael
  • Most likely loser: Paschal Donohoe, Fine Gael / Joe Costello, Labour
  • One to watch: Ciaran Perry, Independent

If the local election results were to be repeated here, there would be no point in Fine Gael, Labour or Fianna Fáil bothering to show up.

Between them these three parties barely managed a quota. Mary Lou McDonald and Maureen O’Sullivan should retain their seats with some comfort.

The question is whether either Paschal Donohoe or Joe Costello musters enough support to save them. Their difficulty is compounded by the loss of some 16,000 voters to Dublin West and Dublin North-West. The loss of the Ashtown vote in particular will hurt Donohoe, but his saving grace could ironically come from Fianna Fáil transfers.

With Cieran Perry and Christy Burke both in the field, there are enough votes for three left-leaning TDs.

Possible result is 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 IND, 0 LAB (-1).

Ivan's take: Yates is calling the result as one for Sinn Féin, one Independent and one for Fine Gael - Joe Costello will lose his seat in Dublin Central.