Labour's Joe Costello will lose his seat in Dublin Central - according to Newstalk Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates.

Sitting TDs: Paschal Donohoe (FG), Joe Costello (LAB), Mary Lou McDonald (SF), and Maureen O'Sullivan (IND)

This constituency lost one seat and a massive 16,000 votes when it was redrawn.

Since all of the sitting TDs are running for re-election, one of them must lose his or her seat.

The forecast comes as part of Newstalk's Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates' series of election predictions. In the weeks leading up to polling day, he is calling the outcome for each of the 40 constituencies.  

Yates says the Dublin Central result he is describing demonstrates the real struggle happening on the ground: "The biggest dog fight in this election will be between Fine Gael and Labour."

"What I am hearing over and over again is that Fianna Fáil have got off to the best start of any of the parties this week, and on the ground, after week one." 

Dublin Central

All four sitting TDs are running for re-election in Dublin Central, but this constituency lost one seat in the boundary redraw, so somebody will certainly lose out. 

There are notable high profile Independent candidates in this region: former Lord Mayor of Dublin Christy Burke, anti-water charge campaigner Cieran Perry, Cormac McKay and Éilis Ryan but none of them will get a look in because of the changes made here.

In total there are 12 candidates in Dublin Central.

Predicted outcome

Yates is calling the result as one for Sinn Féin, one Independent and one for Fine Gael.

1. Mary Lou McDonald (SF)

2. Maureen O'Sullivan (IND)

3. Paschal Donohoe (FG)

Sinn Féin's Mary Lou McDonald has greatly enhanced her position in recent years. 

She will top the poll, growing her number of votes from 4,500 in 2011 to 7,000.

Independent Maureen O'Sullivan will hold onto her seat, despite concerns that she could be "past it".

Yates says this will likely be her last time to run though.

The third seat will go to Fine Gael Minister Paschal Donohoe.

Yates says he will be successful because he will pick up middle class voters on transfers when Fianna Fáíl's Mary Fitzpatrick is eliminated. That will allow him to nudge past Labour candidate Costello.

That result will come in spite of a staunch defence of Costello's chances by Labour, who have commissioned their own research to predict which ways the new voter profile will fall.

You can listen to Ivan Yates' prediction on Newstalk.com's Dublin Central constituency page.