Election 2015?
Did Enda Kenny give a little hint this week that the General Election could be sooner than he’s always insisted? The Taoiseach has repeatedly said the coalition would serve its full term and therefore the poll would be in the Spring of 2016.
But during leaders questions in the Dáil the Sinn Fein President put forward his weekly cry for a general election. “Is it not time you acknowledged that you and the Labour party have no mandate .... Isn’t it time that you got an exit visa from ‘Endaland’ and called a general election?” asked Gerry Adams.
The reply from the Taoiseach was interesting in that Enda Kenny didn’t mention going full-term or 2016. “I do not intend to call a general election until it’s appropriate to do so,” was Kenny’s reply.
Recent opinion polls seem to suggest a bit of wind behind the Government parties. If that trend continues in the polls then the Taoiseach will keep his options open about when to call the election.
Poll – bad day for Micheál Martin?
The latest opinion poll for the Irish Times makes bad reading for Micheál Martin. Fianna Fáil support took a battering - and puts them back to where they were four years ago at the general election. A 17 per cent showing is bad, especially since it’s well down on the 25 per cent the party scored in the local elections less than a year ago.
The party almost seems to have adopted a ‘do nothing’ position in opposition. This is a space the party isn’t really used to in modern times , as the last time they were out of Government was 1994-1997. Back then they launched policies, adopted positions on everything, and the public knew what they stood for. Now, after four years in the cold, the public should have a better understanding of what Fianna Fáil offers and maybe the low poll rating is more to do with the fact they don’t know, rather than not being forgiven for the Troika’s arrival in the country.
If you take a look at the Fianna Fáil website, there are policies - 27 of them listed. Health, social welfare and mortgage arrears are among those listed; but none seem radical enough to make the party really stand out. And how much interest is there in ‘Improving the urban cycling experience’?
Micheál Martin’s leadership isn’t in question right now. Firstly, there is an election very soon – the Carlow-Kilkenny by-election which the party may be favourite to win. Secondly, replacing a leader now is unlikely to provide a boost in the polls, never mind allow the party go off in a new direction. And thirdly, there appears to be some lack of contenders for the position at this point.
When the polls are bad for Fianna Fáil, the media turn to the former deputy leader Eamon O’Cuiv. He has a track record of blaming the leadership when things go wrong. But even he knows that now is not the time for a change of leadership. He spoke to Lunchtime on Newstalk following the publication of the poll.
Sinn Fein support continues to build
What opinion polls over recent months reveal about Sinn Fein is that the revelations from Mairia Cahill and Paudie McGahon seem to do little to the party’s support. This latest poll, which was taken in the aftermath of the detailing of Paudie McGahon’s story, saw the party’s support increased to 24 per cent - the same level as Fine Gael.
This week’s RTE Prime Time Investigates documentary revealed a lot about punishment beatings and shootings during the conflict. Above all the victims and their families want justice. Catherine McCartney spoke to Newstalk Breakfast 10 years after the IRA murdered her brother Robert. "The first thing I would say to Sinn Féin is you have to start putting Provos in the dock. They refuse to put Republicans in the dock. Until they starting doing that, their words are just empty regarding the police and people don't trust them on it."
When I spoke about the programme and the calls for justice to Sinn Fein TD Dessie Ellis, he said apologies are what victims families are after.
Water – another fine mess
This week the International Monetary Fund suggested that public opposition to water charges was easing. The organisation is seemingly unaware of the tens of thousands on the streets of Dublin last weekend and the plans for a ‘bin the bill’ demo in a couple of weeks.
Our former bailout chiefs believe the change in charging structure has softened the opposition – which it has to an extent, but it certainly isn’t going away.
Plans to take unpaid water bills from people’s wages, welfare or benefits that will be announced in the coming weeks by Environment Minister Alan Kelly could see a hardening of opposition again. Indeed the leaked plans are fodder for those leading the opposition to the water charges. Anti Austerity Alliance TD Paul Murphy raised it in the Dáil on Wednesday.
Then there are the bills that will be landing from next week. And Irish Water’s admission that many of them will be wrong or sent in error to people who don’t owe money means the issue of water will be around for some time yet and will no doubt cause further strife for the coalition. By the end of next week they will be looking forward to their Easter break.
