Infectious disease specialist Prof Sam McConkey says “two weeks of even more extreme” coronavirus measures could shorten the "economic closedown" the country is currently experiencing.

The Head of the Department of International Health and Tropical Medicine at RCSI spoke to The Hard Shoulder about the numbers we’ve seen in recent days as well as the situation internationally.

    

He suggested we need another week or more of data from Ireland to see if recent decreases in the number of daily cases can be sustained.

However, he also said that we perhaps need to see more restrictions for a short period of time to ensure Ireland can get back to normal quickly.

He observed: “Maybe we need to consider - if masks are available - using masks in public, or maybe more restrictions on incoming travel.

“We have to try our best to ask ‘how can we control this as quick as possible’ - if this drags on for six or twelve months that’s going to be very destructive to the business world and to our wealth, and lack of wealth means poverty.

“Poor economies lead to ill health… we really have to take measures to get our economy up-and-running again, and keep as many people as possible being productive from home, and do it as soon as possible.

“Perhaps another burst of two weeks of even more extreme measures might actually shorten the total duration of our economic closedown.”

However, he stressed what people and society have done to date has “really made a difference” compared to what many feared would happen here at the outset of the coronavirus outbreak.

He said: “We’ve changed the fate of this epidemic, changed the future by all of us cooperating together to defeat this.

“Is the impact big enough? I think it’s too early to claim a success at this stage… I’m reluctant to project forward based on the last two or three days of data: I think it requires seven or ten days of that drop.”

'Premature data'

Prof McConkey was speaking as an international study suggested Ireland may have already passed the peak of coronavirus deaths.

A model from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington in the US suggested Ireland could see 400 deaths by the start of May and then none until August, the end of the modelling period.

The model was published before this evening's figures showed the highest number of coronavirus-related deaths in a day to date in the Republic.

Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan this evening warned that it ‘simply isn’t true’ that Ireland has reached its peak - saying the figures from the US are not something people should rely on.

Prof Sam McConkey also urged caution when it comes to those particular numbers, despite the reliability of IHME.

He said: “They’ve been very reliable in the past about measuring healthcare outcomes… having said all that, their data about Ireland is I think slightly premature.

“It’s too early to draw that as a firm conclusion - I think it’s more of a hope or aspiration.

“We need another six or seven days’ data, to see if this is sustained.”

However, he noted he tends to agree with projections that the situation will be “very bad” in the UK.

He said: “It’s very, very sad. I feel so sorry for the humans behind all these statistics - it’s not just about numbers, it’s about people. A lot of us have relatives in the UK.”

He also argued that “it’s useful to try and see what are the potential worst case scenarios” when planning.

He argued: “In my view, in life and in healthcare, you kind of have to plan for the worst case scenario… make provisions and plans and contingency plans and be ready for that if it does happen.

“You have to plan for the worst and take actions to try and avert it.”