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Government appears "relatively well prepared" for no-deal Brexit

The Government appears "relatively well prepared" for a no deal Brexit according to international...
Michael Staines
Michael Staines

12.30 14 Aug 2019


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Government appears "relat...

Government appears "relatively well prepared" for no-deal Brexit

Michael Staines
Michael Staines

12.30 14 Aug 2019


Share this article


The Government appears "relatively well prepared" for a no deal Brexit according to international ratings agency Moody's.

The agency said Brexit remains the largest single risk to the Irish economy - and warns that the risk of no-deal has increased since Boris Johnson came to power in the UK.

In its annual credit analysis for Ireland, Moody's notes Irish and UK supply chains are "deeply integrated" and that 11% of Irish exports went to the UK in 2018.

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It said the Irish economy will be negatively impacted with the agricultural and agribusiness sectors set to be the most affected.

It also warned that any re-emergence of border checks will disproportionately affect bordering regions.

No deal Brexit

However, it said Irish authorities "look relatively well prepared" on Brexit with alternative budget plans  in place for both a 'deal' or 'no deal' situation.

Sarah Carlson Senior Vice President at Moody's said Ireland's current A2 credit rating reflects its 'open, flexible and wealthy' economy, which has stage an impressive recovery.

"Ireland's economic prospects are strong on account of substantial competitiveness gains, as well as robust export and productivity growth, which in turn is linked to the expanding presence of multinational corporations," she said.

"Public finances have improved rapidly alongside the economic recovery, the private sector has also reduced its debt levels, and the banking sector is no longer a large contingent liability for the government."

"Volatility"

The report warns that Ireland still has a "high degree economic volatility" largely due to its reliance on multinational company's global value chains.

It finds that Ireland is exposed to risks from Brexit, changes to global tax rules and the uncertainty facing global trade.

It also warns that the risk of the economy overheating is continuing to rise.

Moody's said Ireland's credit rating is likely to remain linked to fiscal and debt metrics.

It said any reduction in the country's national debt will likely lead to an upgrade, while a move away from maintaining sound public finances and reducing debt, could see a downgrade.


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