Fianna Fáil finds itself in a challenging position, with recent opinion polls showing the party at 15%, trailing behind Fine Gael at 18% and Sinn Féin at 24%.

Despite the low polling, historical context suggests a potential recovery.

“They still managed 17% in the 2011 election, which was their lowest of all time in the actual election,” said The Irish Times Consumer Affairs Editor, Sean O'Rourke.

 Commentators in the Business Post have drawn parallels with 2024, when Fianna Fáil was at similar levels before performing strongly in the local elections and eventually securing 22% in the general election, regaining its position as the largest party in the Dáil.

The question of Micheál Martin’s leadership remains under discussion.

Micheál Martin Image: European Union

On the show, it was suggested that the timing of the European presidency may shield him from immediate internal pressure.

“If we weren’t heading into the European presidency, I think there’s every chance the skids would be under Micheál Martin at this stage,” O’Rourke told The Anton Savage Show.

He added that potential leadership contender Jim O’Connell is showing no signs of forcing the issue, with O’Rourke noting, “It’s almost as though he and his supporters can say, look, it’s coming his way anyway.”

The centenary of Fianna Fáil in 2026 also complicates any leadership challenge.

O’Rourke said, “Do they really want a big family fight in a year when they should be celebrating the achievements of the party and maybe glossing over some of the lesser moments in the party’s history?”

While Martin is partly blamed for the party’s current poll position, his long service is recognized.

“He has been a prominent figure in the party going back to what he was a minister in 1997,” O’Rourke observed.

“He did haul [the party] back” after previous setbacks.

There is, however, a sense that his leadership has a limited remaining window.

“I would have a doubt as to whether he can stay much longer than the duration of the presidency this time next year,” O’Rourke said, adding that a handover to Simon Harris in November 2026 is a likely scenario if current conditions remain stable.

“It doesn’t always work. In fact, oftentimes, the last stage of affairs is often worse than the first,” O’Rourke concluded.