Each new COVID variant increases the percentage of the population that needs to be vaccinated before we can reopen, Dr Ronan Glynn has told Newstalk Breakfast.

The Deputy Chief Medical Officer was speaking after NPHET recommended a delay to the return of indoor dining – warning that the Delta variant could cause a surge in infection like nothing the country has seen to date.

Speaking to Shane Coleman this morning, Dr Glynn said Delta is up to twice as transmissible as the original COVID strain – noting that the UK has seen a 70% increase in cases week-on-week while Portugal has seen a 40% increase.

   

He said there “significant uncertainty” around the modelling put forward during the week but health officials expect a “very significant increase in cases over the coming weeks.”

“All of the indicators we are looking at both in Ireland and internationally would suggest there is a significant wave of disease coming,” he said.

“What there is uncertainty about is the extent to which this variant results in more severe disease versus previous variants – and we are going to have to wait for more data to come out on that over the coming weeks.”

'Not just about deaths'

He said NPHET’s caution is “not just about deaths” – noting that officials are also taking long COVID into consideration.

“The majority of these cases will arise in younger people over the coming couple of months,” he said.

“We can see from data in the UK in June that up to 15% of people who get COVID have three or more symptoms persisting for 12 weeks or more – in other words they are suffering from a version of long COVID.

“No-one wants that for themselves, no-one wants that for their families. So, there are very good reasons for people to get vaccinated, get vaccinated as soon as it is offered to them and in the meantime, keep doing all the basic measures they have been doing over recent months.”

Vaccine rollout

As of last Tuesday, 62.5% of the adult population had received one dose of vaccine while 42.61% were fully vaccinated.

The rollout is also expected to be significantly accelerated by the decision to open up the Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca vaccines to younger age groups.

Asked what percentage of the population needed to be vaccination to allow full reopening, Dr Glynn said: “That’s the million-dollar question.”

“With every new variant that is more transmissible that percentage goes up,” he said.

“We are looking at, at least, 85% of the adult population - or at least 80% - of the adult population needing to be vaccinated and of course NIAC at the moment is giving consideration to the issue of vaccination for adolescents.

“We have to be realistic about this. There is a wave of disease coming. Vaccination is not going change the course of that wave significantly in July or August.

“What it can do is mitigate the worst impacts of that wave from there on but we can’t wait. If we wait until the end of August to take action, then it is way too late. We have to act peremptorily and hopefully avert the worst of this wave.”

Care

He urged anyone who is not fully vaccinated to take care in the coming weeks.

“My last message is - and I can remember very vividly giving this message in early December - that there is much more open now and there is much more people can do but I would say to people who are not fully vaccinated, please, just because things are open doesn’t mean you necessarily have to do them,” he said.

“Take all the precautions you have been taking.”

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