Catherine Connolly has an “unassailable” 19% lead over Heather Humphreys just hours before polls open, the editor of the Business Post has said.
The final poll of the campaign found that the independent Galway West TD has the support of 44% of voters - up 8% since the last Red C poll earlier this month.
If the poll is correct, the Fine Gael candidate, Ms Humphreys, has the support of 25% of the electorate - a figure unchanged since the last poll.
Fianna Fáil’s Jim Gavin, who has suspended his campaign, has the support of 10% of the public.
A further 21% said they are still undecided.
On Newstalk Breakfast, Business Post Editor Daniel McConnell said it all means there should be “pretty comfortable victory” for Catherine Connolly at the count on Saturday.
“Jim Gavin’s numbers have held up somewhat,” he explained.
“He was at 12% in our previous poll; he’s now at 10%.
“But the undecideds are still quite high; there were 27% last time around, there are 21% now.
“So, there’s still a cohort of people yet to make up their mind or have decided that neither of the two candidates on offer are for them.”
Jim Gavin after his selection as Fianna Fáil's candidate for President of Ireland. Picture by: Eamonn Farrell/RollingNews.ie.Given the depth of Deputy Connolly’s support, Mr McConnell said there might only be one count on Saturday.
“If it does go to a second count, it’s quite clear that Heather Humphreys will not pick up the majority of Jim Gavin’s vote,” he said, describing the former Cabinet Minister’s campaign as “pretty poor”.
“She’s underperformed in pretty much every media outing that she’s had,” he added.
“She hasn’t connected with the electorate.
“Catherine Connolly has successfully unified the left behind her but also presents herself as the ‘heir apparent’ to Michael D Higgins.
“Despite some weaknesses in that argument, she has managed to land that quite successfully.”
Catherine Connolly and Heather Humphreys.Despite the implosion of his campaign, after it was revealed that he owed money to a tenant, Mr McConnell said Mr Gavin’s campaign is still attracting a “stubborn” amount of support.
“Also as well, it’s quite clear from a lot of people they’re using the presence of Jim Gavin on the ballot as some sort of a protest,” he said.
“They don’t want necessarily to spoil their vote; they want to use Jim Gavin as a means of marking their protest - i.e. that they’re not happy with either of the two candidates.
“So, I’m not surprised at that figure had held up.”
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Overall, Mr McConnell believes most people have found the “pretty uninspiring” and “pretty dull”.
“A lot of people feeling that the candidates that are remaining in the field speak for them or resonate with them in any sort of way,” he said.
Polls open tomorrow at 7am and will close at 10pm.
Main image: Catherine Connolly.
