Jack Quann
Jack Quann

10.20 5 Jun 2019


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A new report examining property prices around the world has said it expects Irish home prices to grow by 9% in both 2019 and 2020.

The Global Housing and Mortgage Outlook report by ratings agency Fitch said this is because of supply constraints putting upward pressure on home prices.

However this growth is only forecast as long as a no-deal Brexit is avoided.

In contrast, the report expects home price growth in Britain to slow to just 2.0% in both 2019 and 2020.

The report says: "We forecast home prices to grow by 9% in both 2019 and 2020 if the UK avoids a no-deal Brexit, because new supply would be constrained, employment prospects would continue to improve, and both first-time buyers and home movers should remain active (in particular outside Dublin for first-time buyers)."

house prices Source: Fitch

It adds that the supply of housing should increase in this scenario "driven by government initiatives and higher volumes of residential property development lending by banks".

But it also cautions that new supply would "fail to meet demand when coupled with the favourable economic environment."

"Existing homeowners would benefit from increasing levels of equity allowing for homemoves that were previously not possible when equity levels were negative or low", it says.

On the prospect of a no-deal Brexit, the report warns downside risks would increase.

"We forecast the rate of home price growth to decrease but remain positive as the imbalance between demand and supply would remain."

Fitch also forecasts that more borrowers will reduce mortgage arrears under loan restructurings.

"Mortgage performance in this mostly floating-rate market (with initial fixed-rate periods) would continue to be supported by low mortgage rates and other initiatives, such as the Tax Relief at Source scheme, which is set to run up until 2021", it says.


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