Edward Snowden is likely to have taken the fate of US Army whistelblower Bradley Manning into account when the ex-CIA employee made the decision to leak information regarding the US government's secret surveillance operations.

Manning, a former intelligence analyst, is currently on trial accused of leaking 700,000 documents to Wikileaks and faces 21 counts including a serious charge of "aiding the enemy."

If found guilty he is likely to face life imprisonment without parole.

Snowden, may have revealed his identity yesterday, but he has managed to evade the US authorities for now and is currently in hiding in Honk Kong.

An extradition treaty exists between the United States and Hong Kong, but his potential transfer is not straight-forward despite that important piece of paperwork.

Treaty

The treaty was entered into force with China's consent in 1998 after the United Kingdom had ceded sovereignty. However Hong Kong's status as a Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China, complicates matters slightly.

Although Hong Kong has a high degree of autonomy, in effect it has the "right of refusal" when surrender of an individual adversly affects China's "defense, foreign affairs or essential public interest or policy".

According to Article 1 of the extradition treaty between the US and Hong Kong, it seems clear that there are provisions for extradition of fugitives who have been accused of "unlawful use of computers", offences involving "intellectual property" and breaking the law in one or both countries.

However Article 3 suggests that Hong Kong can refuse to extradite a fugitive if "the requested surrender relates to the defence, foreign affairs or essential public interest or policy of the state whose government is responsible for the foreign affairs relating to Hong Kong has jurisdiction..."

Also "political crimes" can be a reason for refusing extradition, although the nature of a political crime is not explicitly stipulated and it is unclear whether Snowden would fall under that category.

If he were to cite "political persecution" he would need to convince a judge that this is the case.

China's motives will be of great interest and ironically Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Barack Obama held a summit over the weekend with cybersecurity one of the key issues.

Although China may have some latent influence over the matter, in truth Hong Kong handles its own foreign affairs and has extradited suspects to the United States for more conventional crimes which makes Snowden's move a risky strategy.