Dublin Mid-West

Quick facts:

  • 4-seater
  • sitting TDs: Frances Fitzgerald (FG), Derek Keating (FG), Joanna Tuffy (LAB), Robert Dowd (LAB), 
  • Ministerial representation: Frances Fitzgerald, Fine Gael
  • Population: 110,427
  • 2011 poll topper: Joanna Tuffy, Labour 
  • Most likely loser: Joanna Tuffy, Labour
  • One to watch: Joanna Tuffy, Labour

Having just missed out on a seat in 2011, Sinn Féin’s Eoin Ó Broin is probably going to top the poll this time. The Coalition split the four seats between them in 2011, but will do well to retain two now.

Frances Fitzgerald should be OK, but Derek Keating will have his work cut out. He may be saved by the demise of Labour, who have recognised the reality of their situation by only running Joanna Tuffy (following Robert Dowd's decision to step aside) on the basis that only one seat can be won.

Fianna Fáil have made the perhaps misguided decision to go back to the old guard in former TD John Curran. The 2014 result would suggest that he will be hard pressed to return to the Dáil.

Given the demographics of the constituency, it is likely that another hard left candidate will make a breakthrough - with People Before Profit Alliance’s Gino Kenny the most likely beneficiary.

Possible result is 2 FG, 1 SF (+1), 1 AAA/BPB (+1), 0 LAB (-2).

Ivan's take: Yates is calling the result as two for Fine Gael, one for Sinn Féin and one for the Anti-Austerity Alliance / People Before Profit grouping.