In only a few weeks, we'll officially be half-way through Donald Trump's four-year term as US President.

It has, in no uncertain terms, been another whirlwind 12 months. As was the case during the first dramatic year of the Trump administration, it's often easy to forget what happened earlier in the week - let alone what happened months ago. It's an endless news cycle, with a constant stream of developments from Washington and beyond.

From major elections to the Russia probe to international tensions (new & old), rarely a day goes by without a significant new development. Trump himself continues to dominate the conversation with the usual blend of outrage-provoking tweets, controversial policies, unexpected rows and a steady stream of lies and false statements

2019 will be a major year in US politics - although, frankly, every year seems like a major year in US politics. Still, the prospect of the 2020 presidential election looms - Trump will likely ramp-up his re-election campaign, while it'll start becoming clear who the contenders will be for the Democratic nomination. There could, potentially, even be a primary challenger to President Trump in the Republican field.

On top of that, for the first time in Trump's presidency the Republicans won't control all branches of government - the Democrats will have a majority in the House of Representatives after their mid-term victory last month. And special counsel Robert Mueller's special counsel investigation could be moving towards an endgame...

So there's a lot more to come. But for now, it's worth taking a look back at Donald Trump's 2018 for a reminder of just how extraordinary developments have been under the 45th President of the United States.

Domestic affairs

Picture by: TNS/SIPA USA/PA Images

Two years on from the 2016 election, and Trump still wants his wall with Mexico. The wall is in many respects symbolic of the US President’s continued focus on immigration, with border policy continuing to dominate much of his political agenda.

This was the year of ‘family separations’ - the most controversial element of the Trump administration’s ‘zero tolerance’ approach to illegal immigration. Amid widespread reports of kids being held away from their parents after crossing the border, legal challenges and mounting public outcry led to the eventual abandonment of the policy.

It was far from the end of controversy over immigration, however. Trump repeatedly drew attention to a caravan of central American migrants working their way through Mexico towards the US border. With the US mid-terms approaching, he deployed troops to the border - despite the migrants at the time still being weeks away from arriving. When they did eventually arrive, there were some clashes between people attempting to cross the border and US troops. However, following the election the caravan largely faded from public attention.

Border policy was very much back in the headlines just before Christmas, though, when Trump pushed for funding for the wall amid firm opposition from Democrats. The political dispute led to a federal government shutdown (the third of the Trump presidency) just days before Christmas - yet another reminder of the political division and even dysfunction that has been becoming ever more prevalent in Washington since long before Trump took up residence at Pennsylvania Avenue.

Trump’s war against the press very much continued throughout the year, with his oft-repeated mantra of ‘fake news’ getting almost weekly (sometimes daily) airings. Fox & Friends, the Fox News morning programme, remains a significant exception - Trump's public statements often directly echo what’s been discussed on the show.

His long-running feud of sorts with CNN, meanwhile, became even more dramatic when the White House suspended the press pass of CNN’s correspondent Jim Acosta. After an initial legal victory for the network, the White House relented and restored Acosta’s pass. With the incident prompting the administration to introduce new rules for journalists, no doubt the relationship between Trump and the press will remain mutually antagonistic.

2018 also continued the steady stream of White House departures. Chief of staff John Kelly (the second person to leave the role in less than two years), attorney general Jeff Sessions, defence secretary James Mattis, secretary of state Rex Tillerson, UN ambassador Nikki Haley, communications director Hope Hicks and interior secretary Ryan Zinke were just some of the senior officials who left or announced their planned departures.

In his resignation letter only days before Christmas, Mr Mattis suggested Trump deserved a defence secretary "whose views are better aligned with yours" - a telling statement that highlighted just how challenging many officials have found working in the Trump White House. With the administration seemingly existing in a constant state of flux, it’ll be little surprise if the departures continue in 2019.

The Russia probe and legal dramas

There were three names you’ll have heard again and again throughout 2018: Michael Cohen, Paul Manafort and Michael Flynn. Three key former allies to Donald Trump, and three people who faced major legal trouble throughout the year.

Some of the developments came via special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into alleged Russian interference during the 2016 election. While much of their work continues behind closed doors, the occasional public developments have been widely reported. Most notable, perhaps, was Manafort - the former chair of the Trump campaign - being convicted on a number of charges including tax fraud.

The most significant development was in a case by prosecutors outside the special counsel's office. Cohen, Trump’s former personal lawyer, was earlier this month sentenced to three years in prison for including tax evasion and making false statements to Congress. While the case wasn’t directly linked to the special counsel investigation, it was revealed by prosecutors that Cohen has offered ‘significant assistance’ to that investigation. A memo from the special counsel’s office highlighted that Mr Cohen paid two women 'hush money' to remain quiet about alleged affairs with Donald Trump - claiming that the lawyer acted "in coordination with and at the direction" of Trump himself.

Trump, for his part, has continued to repeatedly and publicly deny any collusion took place between his campaign and Russia, and he's consistently referred to the special counsel probe as a "witch hunt". 

At the moment, there’s only educated guesses about when the Mueller investigation might wind down. The final content of the report also remains more or less a complete mystery. But with a new Democrat-controlled House of Representatives to be sworn in only a matter of days, any findings at all against the President will be seized upon by politicians. Don’t be surprised if whispers of impeachment proceedings start to become louder, although such proceedings would provoke full-on partisan warfare on Capitol Hill and senior Democrats such as Nancy Pelosi remain opposed to the prospect. In the event that Trump himself is completely cleared in the Mueller report, the Democrats are still likely to launch their own House investigations into Trump’s business dealings and finances. Whatever’s the case, there’s lots more to come.

Removed from the Mueller probe, diplomatic relations between the US and Russia have continued in the usual post Cold War way - a mix of necessary diplomatic politeness and occasional hostility. Indeed, July 2018 saw the first full Trump-Putin summit take place in Finland. It appeared to be a relatively cordial meeting between the two men. Still, Trump received widespread criticism back in the US over his performance after he appeared to play down any Russia interference in the 2016 election during a joint press conference with the Russian leader. John McCain - the high-profile Republican senator who passed away only a month later - called the press conference “one of the most disgraceful performances by an American president in memory”.

Still, the summit marked an example of something approaching diplomatic normality amid the continuing fervour in the US media over the Mueller probe. And old US-Russia tensions certainly continue to make an appearance from time to time - such as the US decision this year to expel Russian diplomats in the wake of the Salisbury attack, which the US and Europe have accused Russia of being behind.

Picture by: Lehtikuva/Antti Aimo-Koivisto/Xinhua News Agency/PA Images

Trump and the world

On January 3rd 2018, Trump tweeted about his taunted Kim Jong Un on Twitter about how his nuclear button was “much bigger & more powerful”.

North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un just stated that the “Nuclear Button is on his desk at all times.” Will someone from his depleted and food starved regime please inform him that I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 3, 2018

Six months later, the two men met in Singapore in a remarkable public de-escalation of tensions.

The North Korea - US summit was certainly the diplomatic event of 2018. After months where the prospect of a nuclear war couldn’t be ruled out, the historic summit was even more remarkable. Aided in no small part by the committed efforts of South Korean President Moon Jae-In, the situation in the Korean peninsula is a whole lot less fraught than it was 12 months ago. Not that it’s all smooth sailing - the Trump administration recently announced new sanctions on North Korea over human rights abuses, and it remains unclear how committed the two parties are to complete denuclearisation. Still, progress is progress.

If there were tentative step towards peace with an old US enemy, Trump also made some surprisingly hostile moves against old US allies. It was very much the year of tariffs as Trump hit the EU, Canada and most significantly China with a variety of trade duties. The most sustained moves were against China, provoking a trade war with tit-for-tat responses - it’s since cooled down somewhat, but uncertainty remains over the apparent deal struck between Trump and China’s Xi Jinping.

As has been the case since Trump took office, traditional gatherings of international leaders have become more fraught affairs. Amid the tariff and trade concerns, a G7 summit in June collapsed into chaos when Trump picked a fight with the most unlikely of countries - Canada. Attacking Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as “meek” and "dishonest", the summit ended with the US President retracting his endorsement of a joint summit from the leaders.

Despite the obvious tensions, 2018 did see the controversial NAFTA trade deal between the US, Canada and Mexico renegotiated. If that was one deal that’s managed to survive the Trump presidency, the international Iran nuclear deal was one thrown into disarray following Trump’s announcement in May that the US was withdrawing. Other signatories - including the EU - have been eager to keep the deal alive, but there’s no doubt Trump’s decision has massively undermined what was considered one of Barack Obama’s most high-profile diplomatic achievements.

Closer to home, there were tensions between Washington and the EU over controversial steel and aluminum tariffs unveiled by Trump early in the year - with the move ultimately prompting retaliation from Europe.

Trump’s visit to the UK in July was dominated by protests, including the instantly infamous ‘Trump Baby’ balloon. However, a planned November visit by the US President in Ireland did not go ahead - with both the initial announcement and subsequent cancellation apparently catching even the Government here by surprise.

Then there’s the Saudi Arabia situation. In the wake of the Jamal Khashoggi murder in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, the kingdom was widely condemned by the international community. In an extraordinary statement weeks after the killing, President Trump reiterated US support for Saudi Arabia - despite widespread concerns over whether crown prince Mohammed bin Salman had any role in ordering the killing.

US Senators, including from the Republican party, were among those who pointed the finger at MBS. Breaking from the White House line, senators voted this month to back a resolution accusing the crown prince of ordering the murder, as well as to end US support for the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen. While the votes were largely symbolic, it nonetheless showed members of Trump’s own party refusing to accept the president’s stance on the Khashoggi killing.

Brett Kavanaugh

Supreme Court Associate Justice nominee Brett Kavanaugh appears before the Senate Judiciary Committee. Picture by Jack Gruber-USA TODAY/Sipa USA

On June 27th, US Supreme Court judge Anthony Kennedy announced his retirement. It opened up a vacancy in the highest US court - and, for the second time in less than two years, Donald Trump had the opportunity to choose a nominee.

Around two-weeks later, Trump named the appeals court judge Brett Kavanaugh as his pick. One way or the other, this was going to be a lively battle - given the high-stakes involved, Democrats and liberal activists were going to fight against a judge likely to tip the ideological balance of the court for a generation to come. But the conservative judge came with strong references, and it seemed likely he'd be fairly easily confirmed by the Republican majority in the Senate. Few could have anticipated what would follow.

Only days before an expected confirmation vote was due to take place, reports started emerging of a sexual assault allegation against Mr Kavanaugh. A steady stream of media reports started revealing details of the allegation, and soon the full story was out there. It transpired that the allegation had been made by Christine Blasey Ford, a professor of psychology, with the allegation dating back to when she and Kavanaugh were both teenagers. Details of other allegations also emerged, and the confirmation process quickly grew incredibly fraught.

Christine Blasey Ford. Picture by: Erin Schaff/DPA/PA Images

On September 27th, Prof Ford and Judge Kavanaugh appeared before the Senate Judiciary Committee in one of the most extraordinary sessions ever seen on Capitol Hill. Prof Ford recounted her story, and calmly answered questions put to her by senators. Her testimony was followed by a fiery response from Judge Kavanaugh, who furiously refuted the allegations made against him.

Days of drama followed. With Republicans have only a narrow majority in the Senate, the fate of Kavanaugh's confirmation largely boiled down to a handful of 'moderate' Democrats and Republicans. Campaigners lobbied the seemingly on-the-fence Republicans such as Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski and Jeff Flake. Everything was to play for, and a dramatic intervention from Senator Flake resulted in a hasty FBI investigation of Prof Ford's allegation, delaying the final vote for several days. Trump backed his candidate throughout, insisting the nominee had been treated 'unfairly'.

Ultimately, however, Kavanaugh was confirmed by 50 votes to 48 - with only one Republican (Lisa Murkowski) and one Democrat (Joe Manchin) breaking party ranks. It was, of course, a victory for Donald Trump - his nominee made it through a fraught confirmation process, and it helped motivate the Republican base in the lead-up to the mid-terms.

But the process was also bruising for everybody involved, and almost certainly deepened the increasingly insurmountable ideological differences in Washington. Kavanaugh was sworn in by Donald Trump as Supreme Court justice on October 7th - and Republicans are now closer to a clear conservative majority in the Supreme Court, possibly for many years to come.

The mid-terms

Supporters waves signs as President Donald Trump speaks at a rally, Saturday, Nov. 3, 2018. Picture by: Butch Dill/PA Wire/PA Images 

Throughout 2018, the looming mid-term elections weren’t far from anyone in Washington's mind. For Trump, the stakes were high - he needed to work to ensure as many of his policies were pushed through Congress before the November vote, and also campaign to try and keep Republicans in power for the rest of his term.

As the vote approached, Trump employed a few clear tactics. He returned to his natural habitat: campaign rallies. He flew to numerous states - sometimes multiple times - to attend rallies for favoured Republican candidates in a bid to push them over the line.

He also tried to focus on the issues that seemingly helped sweep him to power in the first place. There was a particular focus on immigration, that most controversial of topics. In particular, he repeatedly worked to turn people's attention to the migrant caravan which was slowly working its way through Mexico towards the US border. The US President constantly attempted to link the caravan to Democratic policies.

How effective Trump's approach was is up for debate - but November 6th certainly wasn't a particularly good night for the US President. On a Senate election map that was extremely challenging for Democrats (24 up for re-election compared to nine Republicans), Republicans managed to increase their majority in the Senate by two seats - that was good news for POTUS, particularly if more divisive votes come before the upper house. But Democrats won a resounding victory in the House of Representatives - gaining around 40 seats, and securing themselves a majority as soon as the new session begins in January.

What this means in practice is that 2019 will see more legislative challenges for Donald Trump. It hasn't exactly been smooth sailing for Trump in Congress to date - recall, for example, the failed effort by Republicans to repeal Obamacare in 2017. Having lost the House, Trump and the Republican leadership will need to work towards more bipartisan compromise to get legislation through. Going by the the government shutdown and border wall dispute that continued over the Christmas period, such compromises are by no means guaranteed...