Brexit is a European crisis - not a British one

The UK's exit, Trump, and revolutionary politics in 2016...

Brexit is a European crisis - not a British one


The UK's shock decision to leave the EU has sent markets into a spin and brought sterling to its lowest level in 31 years.

"The market got it completely the wrong way," Peter Brown Institute of Investing & Financial Trading told Newstalk Breakfast.

He says that in an information vacuum, investors were forced to follow opinion polls and betting odds, "The market is the global betting shop, if the bookies say it's 9/1 on leave, the markets will bet on remain - that's the way the markets are going to go."

While the sterling will fall dramatically today, he warns that the EU is the long-term loser:

"The reality here is that the UK are out. Now sterling has taken a hit initially - but the UK are out. The damage here is to the EU.

"The UK are out they can manage their own interest rates - they can manage their own sterling currency and they have a chance of independence," he told Newstalk.

"They have the fifth biggest economy in the world - I'm not worried about sterling collapsing. Sterling has a lot of inherent strength and will bounce.

"We can't define the mess that the EU is now in. The German market is down by more than the UK market," Mr Brown added.

The EU's response is complicated by the monetary union which is comprised of countries with vastly different economic needs.

The British decision is also likely to feed exit calls in other states, with The Netherlands being the most obvious candidate to follow.

"What are seeing here is that there's something fundamental going on in the world that [means] we are getting votes that are very unusual and very revolutionary," the analyst raised the possibility that this environment could create the conditions for Donald Trump to be elected president in the United States, which in turn would create more instability.