Quick facts:

  • New 4-seater
  • 3 sitting TDs: Tony McLoughlin (FG), John Perry (FG), Michael Colreavy (FF)
  • Ministerial representation: None
  • Population: 119,153
  • 2011 poll topper: John Perry, Fine Gael
  • One to watch: Gerry Reynolds, Fine Gael

A constituency that contains all or parts of four counties and also crosses provincial boundaries is not easy to predict. The one saving grace is that there is an extra seat on offer.

Fianna Fáil will get a seat back following the debacle of 2011, when they lost both seats. While Fine Gael will win one seat, their second one is at serious risk - although the 9,000 voters from west Cavan should favour them.

While Michael Colreavy is retiring, Sinn Féin should keep their seat - although unusually they are adopting a two candidate strategy. However the 6,000 voters coming in from the south Donegal areas of Bundoran and Ballyshannon will be a welcome boost for their prospects.

Although over 15,000 voted for Independents and smaller parties in 2014, they were a very disparate group. Unless someone can emerge to harness that vote, either Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael will win a second seat by default.

Possible result is 2 FG, 1 FF (+1), 1 SF.

Ivan's take: Yates is also calling the result as two seats for Fine Gael, one for Fianna Fáil, and one for Sinn Féin - and calls out "the Boundary Commission" for being "an absolute disgrace in what they did with this constituency."