An additional 18,000 voters largely from Swords and Portmarnock has led to an extra seat. You would be foolish to bet against Clare Daly topping the poll, especially as all of Swords is reunited in one constituency.
The local elections suggest that Labour should retain their seat. Fianna Fáil can get back one of the two lost in 2011, although by adding a second candidate because of gender quota issues they have made it more difficult than it needs to be - especially as Lorraine Clifford Lee is from the same area of the constituency (Malahide/Portmarnock) as Darragh O’Brien.
Fine Gael is also certain of one, and will be in contention for another. Sinn Féin finally made an impression in this area with 10.7% in 2014, having not fielded a candidate in 2011.
There will be an almighty battle for the last seat between Fine Gael, Sinn Féin and a combination of hard left candidates. Should Daly have a big enough surplus, it could swing the seat left. Otherwise Fine Gael just might hold on.
Possible result is 2 FG, 1 FF (+1), 1 LAB, 1 IND.
Ivan Yates's take: Ivan maintains Clare Daly, James Reilly, Darragh O'Brien (FF), Brendan Ryan (LAB) will all take seats, while the fifth seat will go to Sinn Féin's Louise O'Reilly - though it will be hard won.