Taking a line through the local elections, Fine Gael and Labour should both win a seat. It is also probable that Lucinda Creighton has retained enough support to defend her seat, so it is another battle for the final seat.
Fianna Fáil will be confident as Fine Gael will struggle to get a second seat, with Creighton taking a chunk of their traditional base.
Therefore it is down to whether a combination of Sinn Féin and hard left candidates can have a sufficiently coherent transfer policy to overtake Fianna Fáil’s single candidate Jim O’Callaghan. However that seems unlikely, especially as some 8,500 voters have been transferred in from Terenure in Dublin South-Central.
Possible result is 1 FG (-1), 1 FF (+1), 1 LAB (-1), 1 REN (+1).
Ivan's take: Yates is calling the result as one for Fine Gael, one for the Green Party, one for Renua and one for Sinn Féin.