An Independent Councillor will pinch one of Fine Gael's two seats in Limerick County - according to Newstalk Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates.
Sitting TDs: Dan Neville (FG), Patrick O'Donovan (FG) and Niall Collins (FF).
Councillor Emmett O'Brien, who is formerly of the Fianna Fáil gene pool, is running a formidable campaign and will swipe seat three from the government party.
Fianna Fáil controversially did not pick O'Brien for the party ticket, but he will win enough votes nonetheless.
That prediction comes as part of Newstalk's Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates' series of election predictions. In the weeks leading up to polling day, he is calling the outcome for each of the 40 constituencies.
Limerick County
Limerick County is a three seat constituency.
One of the sitting TDs, Fine Gael's Dan Neville is retiring - his son Tom Neville is running as a replacement.
The other two sitting TDs are running for re-election.
The electoral area retained its three seats after a review, but reclaimed part of the region that was previously in with North Kerry - which will have an effect on the vote, greatly favouring Fine Gael's Patrick O'Donovan.
There are nine candidates running for election in Limerick County - all of them are men.
This is the only constituency where no women are running.
The youngest candidate in country, Alexander Cosgrave (22) is running for The Green Party.
Predicted outcome
Yates is calling the result one for Fine Gael, one for Fianna Fáil and one Independent.
1. Patrick O'Donovan (FG)
2. Niall Collins (FF)
3. Emmett O'Brien (Ind)
Patrick O'Donovan (FG) and Niall Collins (FF) will hold onto their seats.
The perceived wisdom is that Fine Gael will take two seats here, but Yates disagrees calling that "lazy punditry".
In particular, he is predicting that the race for the third seat will be interesting - but Yates is giving it to Cllr Emmett O'Brien (Ind), who he has described as a "brilliant campaigner".
O'Brien is a former Fianna Fáil politician, but the party controversially failed to select him for the party ticket.
Great afternoon in Abbeyfeale town and rural Abbeyfeale #GE16 #INDs4Gov pic.twitter.com/T8Mfo8T11m
— Cllr Emmett O'Brien (@EmmettOBrienIND) February 6, 2016
You can listen to Ivan Yates' prediction on Newstalk.com's Limerick County constituency page.
