The Government has warned that up to 55,000 jobs will be lost in the months after any ‘no-deal’ Brexit.
According to the latest Brexit contingency plans, published this afternoon, a no-deal Brexit will leave a €6.5bn hole in the State’s finances in the first year alone.
The report notes that a no deal scenario will be “highly disruptive and will have profound political, economic and legal implications, first and foremost for the UK, including most significantly Northern Ireland” and warns that it will also have “significant impacts on Ireland and the rest of the EU.”
In the report, officials concede there will need to be checks on some goods coming from North to South of Ireland - but do not provided detail on what level of checks will be needed or where they will happen.
Discussions with the European Commission are ongoing to establish what will happen be should the UK crash out.
Speaking outside government buildings this afternoon, Tánaiste Simon Coveney insisted the Government will not put any physical infrastructure on the border.
Tánaiste Simon Coveney says the reality is there will need to be checks on goods somewhere in Ireland if there’s a no deal Brexit to protect Ireland’s part in the single market - but insists there won’t be checks at the border #Brexit
— Seán Defoe (@SeanDefoe) July 9, 2019
"The truth is that we will need to take some action somewhere in our economy to ensure that we are protecting the integrity of the products that are then going to be sold on out of Ireland," he said.
"We are not going to put checks on the border or close to it.
"What is under discussion, and has been for a number of weeks now with the European Commission, is how can we in a real and verifiable way, ensure that the integrity of the Single Market is protected and that we don't have essentially an unprotected back door through Northern Ireland into the EU Single Market."
H warned that a "no deal Brexit is an ugly prospect" for all involved.
“It will put many businesses and many people under a great deal of strain,” he said.
“It will put political relationships on this island under a great deal of strain in my view.
“It will make it more difficult for the institutions of the good Friday Agreement to function and it will be a fundamental disruptor to the all-island economy.”
According to the documents, the Government now believes there is a “significant risk” that the UK will crash out without a deal on October 31st or in the weeks after.
It notes that the last extension was granted on the basis that the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement, including the Irish border backstop, cannot be re-negotiated - nor can the extra time be used to open talks on future trading.
It confirms that the EU is willing to take another look at the Political Declaration that compliments the agreement, “should the UK move on its red lines.”
The memo warns that a no deal scenario “will be an unprecedented event, bringing with it disruption and severe negative economic impacts.”
It says the impact on Ireland will be worse than on other EU countries – with the growth rate of the economy expected to slow by 3%.
It also warns that “in parallel” to the effects on the wider economy, no deal will “have severe negative effects in a number of sectors and among smaller and medium-sized businesses, and it will be widely felt on a regional basis.”
Additional reporting Seán Defoe