Advertisement

What's your likelihood of death in next five years? A new online test claims to be able to predict it...

A new online tool which claims to predict an individual's likelihood of death with 80% accuracy h...
Newstalk
Newstalk

07.53 4 Jun 2015


Share this article


What's your likelihood...

What's your likelihood of death in next five years? A new online test claims to be able to predict it...

Newstalk
Newstalk

07.53 4 Jun 2015


Share this article


A new online tool which claims to predict an individual's likelihood of death with 80% accuracy has been launched.

The test, for people aged between 40 and 70, uses a number of questions - including walking speed and number of cars owned - to judge their risk of dying in the next five years. It is available online here.

The test is based on research into half a million people carried out by two Swedish scientists, using more than 600 lifestyle variables to assess what can best predict mortality risk.

Advertisement

They narrowed it down to 13 lifestyle questions for men and 11 for women, with the researchers claiming it is 80% accurate.

The researchers also found that self-assessment of health proved to be the most accurate indicator of how likely men were to die, whereas previous cancer diagnoses were the most accurate for women.

A habit of smoking was found to be the best way to judge whether someone will die, once disease and serious disease or disorder were excluded.

Dr Erik Ingelsson, who was involved in the study, said: "The fact that the score can be measured online in a brief questionnaire, without any need for lab tests or physical examination, is an exciting development.

"Of course, the score has a degree of uncertainty and shouldn't be seen as a deterministic prediction.

"For most people, a high risk of dying in the next five years can be reduced by increased physical activity, smoking cessation and a healthy diet."

It is hoped the test will help raise awareness among the public about their health, as well as aiding doctors and being used as a guide for public health policy.

Once users have finished the questionnaire, they are presented with a so-called Ubble aged based on their answers.
A lower age than their own indicates good health, a higher one, less so.

Users also receive a risk of death expressed as a percentage.

This indicates how many people out of 100 of the same age and with similar answers will die within the next five years.

Dr Ingelsson added: "In general, if your Ubble age is higher than your actual age, it could raise concerns and provide some incentive for lifestyle change.

"Each question is representative of something - the number of cars owned by someone is most likely a proxy for their social-economic group.

"Walking fast would not decrease your risk of dying, but if you are walking slowly it could be a predictor of bad health - such as heart disease."

The data for the project came from the UK Biobank, an online database of 500,000 people and their health conditions.
A total of 498,103 participants in that database were used for the study, which began in 2007.


Share this article


Read more about

News

Most Popular