Will a budget giveaway work? Who knows - we are entering into a very unpredictable phase in which there are two narratives.

 

One, is the 'get this crowd out' line - the anti-austerity movement, the politics of protest, and a call for change.

 

Then there's the other story - 'we can't risk the recovery - vote us back in.' The government parties' narrative is that they have rescued the country - and they are looking to take all of the credit for the economy's turnaround.

 

If you look at the numbers of possible permutations after the next election, given the decline support for the Government parties between 2011 and current polls, it would be very difficult for Fine Gael and Labour to both hold on to power.

 

They're going to try to convince voters that the alternative to them is chaos. This is where the election will be fought and it's not quite clear which narrative will prevail.

 

We are heading into one of the most interesting and unpredictable elections that the State has seen, it comes down to the 10% of floating voters and which story they'll buy.

 

In most election scenarios 90% voters will have made their mind up a year before polling day. However, in the recent British General Election, you saw that in the last week of the campaign a significant surge of about 5% of the electorate ultimately backed the main government party.

 

Fine Gael are selling the same story here - and hoping for a similar outcome.