Allan Lichtman called the election for Trump back in September, but doesn't expect him to go full term
While Donald Trump’s ascendancy to the Oval Office took almost every political commentator by surprise, with polls showing Hillary Clinton with a comfortable lead, one American academic was calling it for the Republicans as far back as September. Trump will win, Allan Lichtman correctly predicted, the ninth time in a row he’s managed to accurately gauge the American electorate’s decision. But now Lichtman is making another prediction, admitting he cannot see a Trump presidency that doesn’t end with his inevitable impeachment.
“I’m going to make another prediction,” Lichtman told The Washington Post. “This one is not based on a system – it’s just my gut. [The Republican Party leaders] don’t want Trump as president, because they can’t control him. He’s unpredictable. They’d love to have Pence – an absolutely down-the-line, conservative, controllable Republican.
“And I’m quite certain Trump will give someone grounds for impeachment, either by doing something that endangers national security or because it helps his pocketbook.”
Lichtman is far from the only pundit to predict impeachment for the new President-elect, with the New York Times going as far as to say that Trump’s removal from office in the first year of his presidency is “probably” likely to come true.
The American political historian based his choice of Trump to win the election on a list of 13 different factors that influence the US electorate, which he published in the book Keys to the White House. Each of the 13 keys is based on a true/false statement, covering factors as diverse as whether candidate charisma, a record of failure in foreign or military affairs, whether the US economy is in recession during the campaign, and how power is held in the House of Representatives before or after the most recent midterm elections.
“Polls are not predictors,” Lichtman said. “They are snapshots that simulate an election. They are ambushed and misused as predictors. Even the analysis of polls by Nate Silver and other which claimed a probable Clinton victory with from more than 70% to 99% certainty are mere compilations that are no better than the underlying polls.”
Polls and pollsters’ views are only a barometer of public sentiment, Lichtman added. “For all his acclaim, Nate Silver is only a clerk, not a scientific analyst.”