TV pilots, the first episode that tries to get the series off the ground, are often a mess, failing to really portray the true spirit of the show, and are rarely the episode that will get you hooked. But Netflix, the world’s biggest streamer of television and movies around the world, has crunched the numbers on our viewing habits, and has figured out exactly which episode will bring about a binge.
Netflix analysed the data and figured out which episode marks the viewing Rubicon, the point from which there is no return and we are statistically likely to keep going with the rest of the show. For shows like Breaking Bad, all it takes is the second episode’s gruesome bathtub body disposal to grab us, while for How I Met Your Mother it takes Alyson Hannigan’s Lily moving in with Ted and Marshall in the eight episode to work its magic.
According to Netflix’s analysts, seven out of 10 viewers will, at the very least, finish the first season and likely persevere through all subsequent ones at the following point of these 25 shows:
- Arrow — Episode 8
- Bates Motel — Episode 2
- Better Call Saul — Episode 4
- Bloodline — Episode 4
- BoJack Horseman — Episode 5
- Breaking Bad — Episode 2
- Dexter — Episode 3
- Gossip Girl — Episode 3
- Grace & Frankie — Episode 4
- House of Cards — Episode 3
- How I Met Your Mother — Episode 8
- Mad Men — Episode 6
- Marco Polo — Episode 3
- Marvel’s Daredevil — Episode 5
- Once Upon a Time — Episode 6
- Orange is the New Black — Episode 3
- Pretty Little Liars — Episode 4
- Scandal — Episode 2
- Sense8 — Episode 3
- Sons of Anarchy — Episode 2
- Suits — Episode 2
- The Blacklist — Episode 6
- The Killing — Episode 2
- The Walking Dead — Episode 2
- Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt — Episode 4
Netflix has started to focus more and more on producing its own original content, but the release schedule of its programming is and will remain to be dumping the entire season at the same time around all of its global markets. The media giant argues that this is a more effective way of hooking viewers, as a pilot might encourage viewers to tune in to their TVs a week later, but segueing into a second episode after a few seconds is a stronger appeal.
"We found that no one was ever hooked on the pilot," Ted Sarandos, Netflix's content chief, says in a statement. "This gives us confidence that giving our members all episodes at once is more aligned with how fans are made."
Viewing habits do vary around Netflix’s 16 different global territories. The hook episode for those streaming content in the Netherlands tends to be, on average, the one before the rest of the global community, while in Australia and New Zealand it is frequently the episode after the rest of the world.
But while Netflix knows at what point its viewers will get hooked on a viewing binge, that doesn’t always correlate to a show’s audience size. Hooking a loyal audience doesn’t always mean a large audience, suggesting that the subject and broad appeal of a show are critical to attracting a large audience, even if that means the hook episode is pushed to further into the season.
