Dublin Rathdown

Quick facts:

  • Newly named 3-seater (-2)
  • Formerly Dublin South
  • Sitting TDs: Alan Shatter (FG), Olivia Mitchell (FG), Alex White (LAB), Shane Ross (IND), Peter Mathews (IND)
  • Ministerial representation: Alex White, Labour
  • Home of Independent Alliance ‘leader’ Shane Ross
  • Population: 87,470
  • 2011 poll topper: Shane Ross, Independent
  • Most likely loser: Alex White, Labour
  • One to watch: Alex White, Labour

The demise of Dublin South, the bastion of middle-class Dublin, has caused a great deal of angst among the five sitting TDs.

Already Olivia Mitchell has decided not to fight for one of the three seats on offer, as the loss of some 37,000, primarily middle class, voters makes the task too difficult.

Shane Ross will top the poll again with at least one Fine Gael seat still safe. With a better candidate Fianna Fáil might have had a chance.

There is no Sinn Féin or hard left seat here, so it will come down to a battle for the last seat between Alex White, Peter Mathews and the second Fine Gael candidate.

Dublin South was always a great barometer of who would form the Government, and while that will still apply in its abbreviated form, only time will tell. However Fine Gael could well sneak the last seat on the back of Mathew’s transfers.

Possible result is 2 FG (-1), 1 IND, 0 LAB (-1).

Ivan's take: Yates is calling the result as one Independent, one Fine Gael and one for The Green Party.