Yates' Prediction: Labour will lose crucial seat in Dublin Bay South

Newstalk Breakfast looks at each election constituency, studying the candidates and predicting how they will perform

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Labour's Kevin Humphreys at the RDS count centre in Dublin in 2013. Picture by: Niall Carson / PA Archive/Press Association Images

Labour's Kevin Humphreys will lose his seat in Dublin Bay South - according to Newstalk Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates.

Sitting TDs:  Eoghan Murphy (FG), Kevin Humphreys (LAB) and Ruairí Quinn (LAB).

The result will be disappointing and surprising for the government party.

Labour has consolidated its efforts in Kevin Humphreys, but their vote here has collapsed and he will not win a seat.

The government parties previously held all of the seats here, but that picture will change dramatically at the end of this month.

The forecast comes as part of Newstalk's Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates' series of election predictions. In the weeks leading up to polling day, he is calling the outcome for each of the 40 constituencies.  

Dublin Bay South

This is a four seat constituency.

Two of the three sitting TDs are running for re-election after former Minister for Education Ruairí Quinn announced his retirement.

His vote was not traditionally considered to be a Labour vote, but rather a personality vote - Quinn was well liked in the area.

This is an intensely competitive constituency that has gained a seat in the redraw.

There are 14 candidates in the Dublin Bay South constituency.

Predicted outcome

Yates is calling the result as one for Fine Gael, one for the Green Party, one for Renua and one for Sinn Féin.

1. Eoghan Murphy (FG)

2. Eamon Ryan (GP)

3. Lucinda Creighton (REN)

4. Chris Andrews (SF)

Eoghan Murphy (FG) will top the poll here - he is Fine Gael's top dog here since Lucinda Creighton's defection.

She is standing for her Renua party, and will scrape in on the 26th. It might be the only seat the party wins.

Labour party will not win a seat in this constituency, something that will be devastating to the party.

Despite Labour's loss, Ivan Yates believes there is one left wing seat here and it will go to Sinn Féin's Chris Andrews. The elimination of Fianna Fáil's Jim O'Callaghan will benefit him.

Eamon Ryan will comfortably take the second seat for The Green Party.

You can listen to Ivan Yates' prediction on Newstalk.com's on Dublin Bay South constituency page.