Yates' Prediction: Kerry will only elect one Healy-Rae

Newstalk Breakfast looks at each election constituency, studying the candidates and predicting how they will perform

John Brassil, Donal Corcoran, Jimmy Deenihan, Martin Ferris, Brian Finucane, Michael Fitzgerald, Mary Fitzgibbon, Henry Gaynor, Brendan Griffin, Michael Healy Rae, Danny Healy-Rae, Norma Moriarty, Kevin Murphy, Grace O Donnell, Michael O'Gorman, Arthur Spring, #GE16, General Election, Kerry constituency, Fianna Fáil, Renua, Fine Gael, Sinn Féin, Anti-Austerity Alliance People Before Profit, Green Party, Independent, Labour

File photo: Michael Healy Rae TD pictured at the Dail. Photo /RollingNews.ie

Independent TD Michael Healy-Rae will be re-elected in Kerry, according to Newstalk Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates.

Sitting TDs: Jimmy Deenihan (FG), Brendan Griffin (FG), Arthur Spring (LAB), Martin Ferris (SF), Michael Healy-Rae (IND) and Tom Fleming (IND)

His is one of the safe seats in this new five seat constituency.

However, brother Danny will not be successful.

He added his name to the ticket in the final moments before the deadline for nominations.

Political pundit Ivan Yates says the Healy-Raes are being greedy in trying to target two seats and they will fail to win the kind of support they need in the northern part of the constituency - their traditional stronghold is in the south of the county.

Some of Michael's votes will transfer to Danny, but they will not be sufficient in number to elect him.

The forecast comes as part of Newstalk's Breakfast presenter Yates' series of election predictions. In the weeks leading up to polling day, he is calling the outcome for each of the 40 constituencies.  

Kerry constituency

This is a new five seat constituency, made up of the old Kerry South and most of the old Kerry North West Limerick.

Five of the six sitting TDs are running for re-election.

Independent TD Tom Fleming is not contesting. He announced that surprise decision in the dying days of the Dáil.

A huge constituency geographically, with two major urban centres in Tralee and Killarney. 

There are 16 candidates in the Kerry constituency.

Predicted outcome

Yates is calling the result as two for Fine Gael, one Independent, one for Fianna Fáil, and one for Sinn Féin.

1. Michael Healy-Rae (IND)

2. Jimmy Deenihan (FG)

3. Brendan Griffin (FG)

4. John Brassil (FF)

5. Martin Ferris (SF)

Independent TD Michael Healy-Rae will top the poll.

Fine Gael TD Jimmy Deenihan will be re-elected, taking the second seat.

That party will also take the third seat for Brendan Griffin.

Fianna Fáil will win back a seat in this constituency. On balance, Yates predicts that seat will go to John Brassil - over his running mate Norma Moriarty.

The battle for the last seat will be between Danny Healy-Rae (IND), Arthur Spring (LAB) and Martin Ferris (SF), but it is Ferris who will take it on transfers from Spring.

However, Ferris is in danger of losing his seat. That is largely as the result of poor succession planning on his part.

He toyed with the idea of retiring, but daughter Toiréasa refused to run, so he ran again himself.

You can listen to Ivan Yates' constituency prediction on Newstalk.com's Kerry constituency page.