Yates' Prediction: Government to lose its majority in Wicklow

Newstalk Breakfast looks at each election constituency, studying the candidates and predicting how they will perform

Joe Behan, John Brady, Sharon Briggs, Pat Casey, Avril Cronin, Jennifer Cuffe, Stephen Donnelly, Andrew Doyle, Anna Doyle, Anne Ferris, Simon Harris, Katrina Hutchinson, Bob Kearns, Charlie Keddy, Steven Matthews, Billy Timmins, #GE16, General Election, constituency, candidate, poll, vote, ballot, government, Fine Gael, Sinn Féin, Independent, Anti-Austerity Alliance People Before Profit, Fianna Fáil, Social Democrats, Labour, Green Party, Renua

Fine Gael TD Billy Timmins leaving Leinster House in Dublin after voting against the protection of Life during pregnancy bill in 2013. Picture by: Niall Carson / PA Archive/Press Association Images

The government will lose its majority in Wicklow, according to Newstalk Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates.

Sitting TDs: Simon Harris (FG), Andrew Doyle (FG), Anne Ferris (LAB), Stephen Donnelly (SD) and Billy Timmons (REN)

Renua's Deputy Chairman Billy Timmins will lose his seat, after his defection from Fine Gael.

He lost the party whip in 2013 after he voted against the Protection of Life During Pregnancy Bill.

Timmins has held a seat since 1997.

Meanwhile, Labour's Anne Ferris will also lose her seat leaving the government down from four out of five seats to two out of five seats.

The forecast comes as part of Newstalk's Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates' series of election predictions. In the weeks leading up to polling day, he is calling the outcome for each of the 40 constituencies.  

Wicklow constituency

This is a five seat constituency, unchanged in the review of constituency boundaries.

A complex and sprawling constituency, it stretches from Greystones and Bray to Arklow and encompasses parts of Carlow.

In 2011 the count went for days, and that is likely to happen again this time out.

Ivan Yates says it is extremely difficult to predict what voters will do, and the results he is predicting today could still change.

There are 16 candidates in the Wicklow constituency.

Predicted outcome

Yates is calling the result as two for Fine Gael, one for Sinn Féin, one for Fianna Fáil and one for the Social Democrats.

1. John Brady (SF)

2. Simon Harris (FG)

3. Stephen Donnelly (SD)

4. Andrew Doyle (FG)

5. Pat Casey (FF)

Fianna Fáil maintains it is strong enough here to take a seat and if so, it will be Pat Casey of the Glendalough Hotel who take it. He will be elected on the elimination of Jennifer Cuffe.

Billy Timmins is in the fight for his life, but Yates predicts he will lose the seat he has held for almost 20 years.

You can listen to Ivan Yates' constituency prediction on Newstalk.com's Wicklow constituency page.