Yates' Prediction: Labour's Penrose will be re-elected in Longford-Westmeath

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File photo: Former Labour Leader Eamon Gilmore (left) hugs TD Willie Penrose. Picture by: Niall Carson / PA Archive/PA Images

Labour's Willie Penrose will successfully defend his seat in Longford-Westmeath - according to Newstalk Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates.

Sitting TDs: James Bannon (FG), Gabrielle McFadden (FG), Willie Penrose (LAB) and Robert Troy (FF).

Finally, some good news for Labour in Longford-Westmeath from pundit Yates, who has already predicted major losses for the party in Clare, Cork and Dublin.

That win will come in spite of speculation that Penrose could be in trouble.

Deputy Penrose has made a name for himself for his stance on bankruptcy legislation, and for protesting the closure of army barracks.

He could be down up to 3,000 votes on 2011's election result, but he will still take the second seat in the constituency.

The forecast comes as part of Newstalk Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates' series of election predictions. In the weeks leading up to polling day, he is calling the outcome for each of the 40 constituencies.  

Longford-Westmeath constituency

Clare is a four seat constituency, unchanged in the recent redraw.

All four sitting TDs are seeking re-election.

This is traditionally Fianna Fáil country - Albert Reynolds and Mary O'Rourke's stomping grounds. Fine Gael always gets one TD here also.

Ivan Yates says there are actually three constituencies here, the county of Longford, and the two Westmeath fiefdoms of Athlone and Mullingar. "There will be TDs elected in each of those three areas, because that is where the votes are."

There are 14 candidates running in the Longford-Westmeath constituency.

Predicted outcome

Yates is calling the result as one for Fine Gael, one for Labour, one for Fianna Fáil and one Independent.

1. James Bannon (FG)

2. Willie Penrose (LAB)

3. Robert Troy (FF)

4. Kevin 'Boxer' Moran (IND)

Three of the four sitting TDs will be returned here.

Fine Gael's James Bannon will top the poll in Longford-Westmeath, but party colleague and bye-election winner Gabrielle McFadden will lose her seat.

Labour's Willie Penrose will be galvanised by speculation that he could lose his seat, bouncing back to grab the second spot.

Fianna Fáil's Robert Troy will take the third seat in this traditionally strong Fianna Fáil constituency. 

There isn't a second seat for Fianna Fáil in this constituency because they made an "absolute horlicks of their convention", according to Yates. The party has no candidate in Athlone and they imposed Connie Gerety-Quinn because of gender quotas, causing enormous upset to other delegates and damaging their chances.

The fourth spot will go to Independent Kevin 'Boxer' Moran, who will poll strongly in Athlone and successfully pick up transfers.

You can listen to Ivan Yates' prediction on Newstalk.com's Longford-Westmeath constituency page.