#RealityCheck: Could Joan Burton lose her seat?

A poll states that the Tanaiste is in danger of losing her seat in Dublin West

Joan Burton says she's confident of getting re-elected in the battleground that is Dublin West. 

Speaking after a poll this morning suggested she will lose her seat, the Labour leader said "I've never been in an election in Dublin West that hasn't been a battleground.

"I'm very confident I have to say."

Labour Deputy Leader Alan Kelly has refused to say if he wants to step into Joan Burton's shoes as leader should she fail to get re-elected.

Kelly backed up the Tánaiste saying that people should only "underestimate her at their own peril." 

Kelly and Minister Jan O'Sullivan said that Joan Burton will keep her seat and will lead Labour into the next government. 

"None of us will be leading the party or aspiring to lead the party straight after the election - it'll be Joan Burton" said Minister O'Sullivan. 

The Tánaiste is in danger of losing her seat in Dublin West, according to a poll in today’s Herald.

The constituency is set to be keenly contested with fine gael health minister Leo Varadkar, AAA-PBP TD Ruth Coppinger and Fianna Fail Councillor Jack Chambers among those seeking election.

The Millward Brown/ Herald survey spoke to over 500 respondents and was carried out between February 5th and 8th.

Kevin Doyle, Group Political Editor of Independent News and Media, spoke to Newstalk Breakfast this morning about the possibility of her losing her seat.

The poll was taken in Dublin West and the main result from it was that Ms Burton was in danger of losing her seat, she holds just 10% of the first preference votes.

Mr Doyle pointed to the fact that there is a resurgence of Fianna Fail in the constituency in regards to Jack Chambers (whol holds 17% of the first preferences), Ruth Coppinger's popularity rating is quite high and that if Joan Burton did get re-elected, it would be down to Leo Varadkar's surplus vote.

Leo Varadkar is expected to top the poll with 20% while Sinn Féin's expected to make a breakthrough with Paul Donnelly. However, Ms Burton's poll stands at just 10% while Ruth Coppinger sits with 15%.

On top of the above, the poll also found that Ms Burton was the least effective sitting TD of the current Dáil at 42%.

Ivan added that this poll is fairly accurate, "I think that the accuracy of this poll cannot be overstated.

"Jack Chambers has a seat here, no question, he's going to get a seat.

"I would say this will send shock waves through Government and give real hope to Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin in Dublin."

You can listen back to the Newstalk Breakfast interview here: