Yates' Prediction: Labour's McCarthy will lose his seat in Cork South West

Newstalk Breakfast takes a look at each election constituency, studying the candidates and predicting how they will perform

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Labour TD Michael McCarthy, Cork South-West. Photo: /RollingNews.ie

Sitting Labour TD Michael McCarthy will lose his seat in the next General Election - according to the prediction Newstalk Breakfast Ivan Yates is making for the three-seater constituency of Cork South-West.

Sitting TDs: Jim Daly (FG), Noel Harrington (FG), Michael McCarthy (LAB)

Former government minister and seasoned political pundit Yates says, of the nine declared candidates, there are six serious contenders but Fine Gael Deputies Jim Daly and Noel Harrington are safe votes, with Daly likely to top the poll.

Yates forecasts the loss of Labour's seat in Michael McCarthy because the government will not be able to hold on to all three seats. 

Fianna Fáil's gain

The government of today pushed out Fianna Fáil in 2011 to win two seats for Fine Gael and one for Labour.

This time around, Labour's loss will be Fianna Fáil's gain - the opposition party targeting a win in this constituency at the very top of its wish list.

Cllr Margeret Murphy O'Mahony will likely take the third seat, though outsider Independent Alan Coleman could split the Fianna Fáil vote. 

Otherwise, Sinn Féin will make progress, but not enough to win a seat.

The outcome - as Yates calls it - will be two seats for Fine Gael, one seat for Fianna Fáil.

Listen to Ivan Yates on Michael McCarthy below:

Yates will be calling the outcome for each of the 40 constituencies in the weeks leading up to polling day.

To hear the full interview, visit the Cork South-West constituency page.