The transfer in of some 27,000 voters from the Rathfarnham area of Dublin South dramatically changes the dynamic of this constituency. Even though there will be an extra seat, the huge shift in the social class demographic means that it is likely that two of the seats will go to candidates in the imported area.
It won’t impact on Sinn Féin retaining their seat, but it will be difficult for them to win an extra one, while Paul Murphy will also romp home. The Rathfarnham area should ensure that Fine Gael recovers the seat they lost in the by-election and the same area should be instrumental in putting Fianna Fáil back in the Dáil through John Lahart.
The final seat will probably be between Labour, Sinn Féin and another hard left candidate. The one caveat is whether either Katherine Zappone or Ronan McMahon (Renua) could marshal sufficient votes to mount a challenge. To do that you would suspect that that would eat into the Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael votes and make one of their seats vulnerable.
However their transfers may well be enough to rescue one seat for Labour and the irony is that the bulk of these could come from TD Eamonn Maloney who has deserted Labour and will run as an Independent.
Possible result is 1 FG, 1 FF (+1), 1 SF, 1 LAB (-1), 1 AAA/PBP.
Yates's take: Yates is calling the result as one seat for the Anti-Austerity Alliance/People Before Profit group, two for Sinn Féin, one Fine Gael and one Fianna Fáil - with Paul Murphy will top the poll overall.