If Sean Barrett runs then Fine Gael are assured of two seats. Richard Boyd Barrett and Mary Mitchell-O’Connor will be the first two elected, which will leave the final seat between Fianna Fáil and Labour - although the 9,500 voters coming in from the Foxrock area of Dublin South could just keep Fine Gael in the running for a third seat (assuming Sean Barrett runs).
It is very difficult to see how Labour can compensate for the loss of Eamon Gilmore’s personal vote, but the Labour transfers could edge Fine Gael ahead of Fianna Fáil.
However this is a crucial seat for Fianna Fáil and they will throw every resource at it - meaning that they could well just sneak home.
Possible result is 2 FG, 1 FF (+1), 1 AAA/PBP, 0 LAB (-1).
Ivan's take: Yates is calling the result as two for Fine Gael, one for Fianna Fáil and one for the Anti-Austerity Alliance People Before Profit group - with Fianna Fáil's Hanafin regaining her old seat in Dun Laoghaire.